Football · Belgium First Division A · 09/08, 13:30

Prediction: Gent vs KV Mechelen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Gent1.4

KV Mechelen1.01

1X2

45% 28% 26%

Gent Draw KV Mechelen

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Gent 2-7-1 (W-D-L)

DDLDWDWDDD

KV Mechelen 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDDLWWWLLD

Head-to-head

Gent 2–3–1 KV Mechelen (6 last)

KV Mechelen1-0Gent
Gent1-1KV Mechelen
Gent3-1KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen1-1Gent
KV Mechelen3-3Gent
Gent2-0KV Mechelen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gent 1533 · KV Mechelen 1498

	Gent	Draw	KV Mechelen
Our model	45%	29%	26%
Market	46%	27%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gent: 2-3-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gent	KV Mechelen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 5.6	2.7 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0.1	2.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.40

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.68
2	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.79 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:31 +1’	2.00	3.40	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:32	1.93	3.68	3.79

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gent 2–3–1 KV Mechelen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Belgium First Division A	KV Mechelen	1-0 HT 1-0	Gent
06/04/26 Belgium First Division A	Gent	1-1 HT 1-0	KV Mechelen
08/03/26 Belgium First Division A	Gent	3-1 HT 2-0	KV Mechelen
16/08/25 Belgium First Division A	KV Mechelen	1-1 HT 1-0	Gent
07/02/25 Belgium First Division A	KV Mechelen	3-3 HT 1-1	Gent
15/09/24 Belgium First Division A	Gent	2-0 HT 2-0	KV Mechelen

Standings · Belgium First Division A

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cercle Brugge	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Club Brugge	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Genk	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KV Kortrijk	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Westerlo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lommel	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	OH Leuven	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RAAL La Louviere	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Antwerp	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Charleroi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Anderlecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SK Beveren	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sint-Truidense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Standard Liege	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Zulte-Waregem	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Union Saint Gilloise	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KV Mechelen	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gent	KV Mechelen
Club Brugge	0-5 L	2-2 D
Union Saint Gilloise	0-0 D	0-3 L
Sint-Truidense	1-1 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gent (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Gent

DDLDWDWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	LNZ Lebedyn UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	0-0	14	2	D
23/07	LNZ Lebedyn UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
18/07	FC Twente Club Friendly List	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
18/07	FC Twente Club Friendly List	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
04/07	AZ Europe Friendlies	1-1	3-3	0	0	D
27/06	KFC Merelbeke Europe Friendlies	3-0	6-1	5	0	W
31/05	Genk Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
24/05	Club Brugge Belgium First Division A	0-3	0-5	8	1	L
21/05	Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
16/05	Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-1	3	1	D

KV Mechelen

LDDLWWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Dunkerque Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
25/07	Willem II Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	9	1	L
18/07	ADO Den Haag Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-3	–	–	L
15/07	KSK Heist Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
11/07	Sporting Hasselt Club Friendly List	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
04/07	Rupel Boom FC Club Friendly List	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
24/05	Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
21/05	Club Brugge Belgium First Division A	0-1	2-2	3	3	D
17/05	Anderlecht Belgium First Division A	1-1	2-2	2	4	D
10/05	Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A	0-1	0-3	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gent vs KV Mechelen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gent win (45%). Probabilities: Gent 45%, draw 28%, KV Mechelen 26%.

How many goals are expected in Gent vs KV Mechelen?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Gent 1.4 · KV Mechelen 1.01), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gent vs KV Mechelen?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.