Football · Belgium First Division A · 09/08, 16:00

Prediction: Zulte-Waregem vs Genk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Zulte-Waregem1.3

Genk1.7

1X2

28% 26% 46%

Zulte-Waregem Draw Genk

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Zulte-Waregem 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWDWD

Genk 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWDLWLLLWW

Head-to-head

Zulte-Waregem 1–5 Genk (6 last)

Zulte-Waregem2-1Genk
Genk3-2Zulte-Waregem
Genk1-0Zulte-Waregem
Zulte-Waregem1-4Genk
Genk2-0Zulte-Waregem
Zulte-Waregem2-6Genk

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zulte-Waregem 1593 · Genk 1508

	Zulte-Waregem	Draw	Genk
Our model	28%	26%	46%
Market	28%	26%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zulte-Waregem (rating 1593 vs 1508).
H2H favours Genk: 5-0-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zulte-Waregem	Genk
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/11/22%	33/22/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.1	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	1.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.50

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.77

2 (-0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 1 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.55
2	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.21 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.8% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:26 +10’	3.20	3.50	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:35	3.18	3.50	2.22
01:36	3.17▼	3.55▲	2.21▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zulte-Waregem 1–0–5 Genk

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 Belgium First Division A	Zulte-Waregem	2-1 HT 0-0	Genk
31/08/25 Belgium First Division A	Genk	3-2 HT 2-2	Zulte-Waregem
14/01/23 Belgium First Division A	Genk	1-0 HT 1-0	Zulte-Waregem
14/08/22 Belgium First Division A	Zulte-Waregem	1-4 HT 1-3	Genk
06/02/22 Belgium First Division A	Genk	2-0 HT 1-0	Zulte-Waregem
31/10/21 Belgium First Division A	Zulte-Waregem	2-6 HT 0-2	Genk

Standings · Belgium First Division A

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cercle Brugge	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Club Brugge	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Genk	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KV Kortrijk	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Westerlo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lommel	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	OH Leuven	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RAAL La Louviere	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Antwerp	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Charleroi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Anderlecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SK Beveren	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sint-Truidense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Standard Liege	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Zulte-Waregem	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Union Saint Gilloise	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KV Mechelen	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Zulte-Waregem

WWWWWWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	KFCO Beerschot Wilrijk Europe Friendlies	2-0	2-2	4	8	D
25/07	Sparta Rotterdam Europe Friendlies	1-2	3-2	4	2	W
18/07	AZ Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-1	1	3	D
08/07	Rakow Czestochowa Club Friendly List	2-2	4-3	–	–	W
04/07	KVV Zelzate Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-1	9	2	W
03/07	KSV Oudenaarde Europe Friendlies	2-0	3-0	10	0	W
27/06	Racing Waregem Club Friendly List	–	6-0	–	–	W
09/05	FCV Dender EH Belgium First Division A	2-1	2-1	9	6	W
01/05	Cercle Brugge Belgium First Division A	0-1	3-2	7	1	W
26/04	RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A	2-0	4-0	5	2	W

Genk

DWDLWLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	FC Twente Elite Club Friendlies	2-0	2-1	1	3	W
01/08	Top Oss Club Friendly List	–	3-1	–	–	W
29/07	Bayer Leverkusen Elite Club Friendlies	0-2	0-4	4	0	L
22/07	AZ Elite Club Friendlies	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
18/07	Falkirk Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-1	5	0	L
17/07	Motherwell Europe Friendlies	2-1	4-3	5	0	W
11/07	Fortuna Sittard Europe Friendlies	0-2	1-2	1	0	L
31/05	Gent Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
23/05	OH Leuven Belgium First Division A	2-0	2-0	4	2	W
19/05	Antwerp Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-0	11	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zulte-Waregem vs Genk?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Genk win (46%). Probabilities: Zulte-Waregem 28%, draw 26%, Genk 46%.

How many goals are expected in Zulte-Waregem vs Genk?

The model expects 3 goals (Zulte-Waregem 1.3 · Genk 1.7), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Zulte-Waregem vs Genk?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.