Football · Belgium First Division A · 02/09, 20:30

Prediction: Sint-Truidense vs Union Saint Gilloise

Team pages: Sint-Truidense · Union Saint Gilloise

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Sint-Truidense1.49

Union Saint Gilloise1.49

1X2

37% 27% 37%

Sint-Truidense Draw Union Saint Gilloise

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Sint-Truidense 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLDLWDDW

Union Saint Gilloise 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWLDWWDW

Head-to-head

Sint-Truidense 1–1–4 Union Saint Gilloise (6 last)

Sint-Truidense2-1Union Saint Gilloise
Union Saint Gilloise1-0Sint-Truidense
Sint-Truidense1-3Union Saint Gilloise
Union Saint Gilloise2-0Sint-Truidense
Union Saint Gilloise2-1Sint-Truidense
Sint-Truidense0-0Union Saint Gilloise

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Saint Gilloise (rating 1540 vs 1595).
H2H favours Union Saint Gilloise: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sint-Truidense	Union Saint Gilloise
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.3	2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.6	2.1 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:28

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.68 → 3.68	Pinn 3.68
X	3.41 → 3.41	Pinn 3.41
2	2.06 → 2.06	Pinn 2.06

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:21 +7’	3.68	3.41	2.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sint-Truidense 1–1–4 Union Saint Gilloise

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Belgium First Division A	Sint-Truidense	2-1 HT 0-0	Union Saint Gilloise
04/04/26 Belgium First Division A	Union Saint Gilloise	1-0 HT 0-0	Sint-Truidense
22/03/26 Belgium First Division A	Sint-Truidense	1-3 HT 0-2	Union Saint Gilloise
26/10/25 Belgium First Division A	Union Saint Gilloise	2-0 HT 0-0	Sint-Truidense
02/02/25 Belgium First Division A	Union Saint Gilloise	2-1 HT 0-0	Sint-Truidense
25/08/24 Belgium First Division A	Sint-Truidense	0-0 HT 0-0	Union Saint Gilloise

Standings · Belgium First Division A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charleroi	4	4	0	0	9	2	12
2	Club Brugge	4	3	0	1	8	2	9
3	Gent	3	3	0	0	6	2	9
4	Zulte-Waregem	4	2	2	0	8	3	8
5	Standard Liege	4	2	2	0	9	6	8
6	Union Saint Gilloise	3	2	1	0	8	1	7
7	Genk	4	2	1	1	12	8	7
8	Lommel	4	2	1	1	6	2	7
9	Antwerp	4	2	1	1	10	9	7
10	Sint-Truidense	3	1	2	0	8	5	5
11	Anderlecht	3	1	0	2	2	5	3
12	SK Beveren	4	1	0	3	2	10	3
13	Cercle Brugge	4	0	2	2	5	7	2
14	KV Mechelen	4	0	2	2	5	9	2
15	RAAL La Louviere	4	0	1	3	4	8	1
16	Westerlo	4	0	1	3	5	14	1
17	OH Leuven	3	0	0	3	2	8	0
18	KV Kortrijk	3	0	0	3	1	9	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sint-Truidense	Union Saint Gilloise
KV Mechelen	3-0 W	3-0 W
Anderlecht	1-3 L	3-0 W
Gent	1-1 D	0-0 D
Club Brugge	0-2 L	0-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sint-Truidense

WWWLDLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Antwerp Belgium First Division A	1-0	4-1	1	4	W
14/08	Cercle Brugge Belgium First Division A	2-1	3-3	3	3	D
08/08	Lommel Belgium First Division A	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
24/05	KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A	2-0	3-0	2	4	W
21/05	Anderlecht Belgium First Division A	0-2	1-3	9	4	L
16/05	Gent Belgium First Division A	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
09/05	Club Brugge Belgium First Division A	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
02/05	Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A	0-0	2-1	9	7	W
26/04	KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A	1-1	4-1	7	2	W
23/04	Anderlecht Belgium First Division A	0-0	2-0	4	3	W

Union Saint Gilloise

DWLWLDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Anderlecht Belgium First Division A	2-0	3-0	4	4	W
15/08	Zulte-Waregem Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
08/08	Westerlo Belgium First Division A	1-1	5-1	5	3	W
24/05	Anderlecht Belgium First Division A	4-0	5-1	4	5	W
21/05	Gent Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
17/05	Club Brugge Belgium First Division A	0-3	0-5	10	3	L
10/05	KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
02/05	Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A	0-0	1-2	1	7	L
26/04	Anderlecht Belgium First Division A	2-1	3-1	3	6	W
22/04	Gent Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-0	9	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sint-Truidense vs Union Saint Gilloise?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sint-Truidense win (37%). Probabilities: Sint-Truidense 37%, draw 27%, Union Saint Gilloise 37%.

How many goals are expected in Sint-Truidense vs Union Saint Gilloise?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Sint-Truidense 1.49 · Union Saint Gilloise 1.49), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sint-Truidense vs Union Saint Gilloise?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.