Football · Belgium First Division A · 19/09, 18:15
Prediction: Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge
Team pages: Charleroi · Cercle Brugge
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.36Total
Charleroi2.07
Cercle Brugge1.29
1X2
Charleroi
Draw
Cercle Brugge
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Charleroi
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Cercle Brugge
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Charleroi
1–2–3
Cercle Brugge
(6 last)
- Charleroi3-4Cercle Brugge
- Cercle Brugge2-3Charleroi
- Charleroi1-1Cercle Brugge
- Cercle Brugge2-0Charleroi
- Charleroi0-0Cercle Brugge
- Cercle Brugge2-0Charleroi
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Charleroi 1541 · Cercle Brugge 1452
| Charleroi | Draw | Cercle Brugge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Market | 54% | 25% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charleroi (rating 1541 vs 1452).
- H2H favours Cercle Brugge: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 14.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Charleroi | Cercle Brugge | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.7 | 1.5 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 6.8 | 3.5 / 7.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.2 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Charleroi 1–2–3 Cercle Brugge
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 Belgium First Division A | Charleroi | 3-4 HT 1-3 | Cercle Brugge |
| 14/09/25 Belgium First Division A | Cercle Brugge | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Charleroi |
| 25/01/25 Belgium First Division A | Charleroi | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Cercle Brugge |
| 03/11/24 Belgium First Division A | Cercle Brugge | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Charleroi |
| 09/03/24 Belgium First Division A | Charleroi | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cercle Brugge |
| 05/08/23 Belgium First Division A | Cercle Brugge | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Charleroi |
Standings · Belgium First Division A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Saint Gilloise | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 16 |
| 2 | Gent | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 16 |
| 3 | Club Brugge | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | Charleroi | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Zulte-Waregem | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Standard Liege | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| 7 | Anderlecht | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | SK Beveren | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 9 |
| 9 | Genk | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 9 |
| 10 | Sint-Truidense | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| 11 | Antwerp | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 13 | 7 |
| 12 | Lommel | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 13 | Westerlo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 16 | 7 |
| 14 | RAAL La Louviere | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 4 |
| 15 | Cercle Brugge | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 3 |
| 16 | KV Mechelen | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 2 |
| 17 | OH Leuven | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| 18 | KV Kortrijk | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Charleroi | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| Zulte-Waregem | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Lommel | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| OH Leuven | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Standard Liege | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 0 L | 0 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Charleroi (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Charleroi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Zulte-Waregem Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A |
2-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | KV Kortrijk Belgium First Division A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 16/08 | Lommel Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | OH Leuven Belgium First Division A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Standard Liege Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 8 | W |
| 19/05 | OH Leuven Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 14 | 0 | D |
| 16/05 | Westerlo Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Antwerp Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
Cercle Brugge
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | OH Leuven Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 6 | D |
| 06/09 | Gent Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 29/08 | Lommel Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 23/08 | Club Brugge Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 14/08 | Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A |
1-2 | 3-3 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 08/08 | Standard Liege Belgium First Division A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 09/05 | RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 1-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 01/05 | Zulte-Waregem Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 24/04 | FCV Dender EH Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 19/04 | FCV Dender EH Belgium First Division A |
1-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Charleroi win (54%). Probabilities: Charleroi 54%, draw 24%, Cercle Brugge 22%.
How many goals are expected in Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
The model expects 3.36 goals (Charleroi 2.07 · Cercle Brugge 1.29), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.