Football · Switzerland Challenge League · 21/08, 19:30
Prediction: Stade Nyonnais vs Etoile Carouge
Team pages: Stade Nyonnais · Etoile Carouge
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.82Total
Stade Nyonnais1.15
Etoile Carouge1.67
1X2
Stade Nyonnais
Draw
Etoile Carouge
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Stade Nyonnais
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Etoile Carouge
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Stade Nyonnais
0–4–2
Etoile Carouge
(6 last)
- Etoile Carouge0-0Stade Nyonnais
- Stade Nyonnais2-2Etoile Carouge
- Stade Nyonnais0-0Etoile Carouge
- Etoile Carouge1-1Stade Nyonnais
- Etoile Carouge2-1Stade Nyonnais
- Stade Nyonnais0-3Etoile Carouge
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stade Nyonnais 1427 · Etoile Carouge 1483
| Stade Nyonnais | Draw | Etoile Carouge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 27% | 48% |
| Market | 26% | 25% | 49% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Etoile Carouge (rating 1427 vs 1483).
- H2H favours Etoile Carouge: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stade Nyonnais | Etoile Carouge | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2.5 | 1.4 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.4 | 0.4 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 0/44/56% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 4.8 | 2 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stade Nyonnais 0–4–2 Etoile Carouge
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 Switzerland Challenge League | Etoile Carouge | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Stade Nyonnais |
| 23/01/26 Switzerland Challenge League | Stade Nyonnais | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Etoile Carouge |
| 07/11/25 Switzerland Challenge League | Stade Nyonnais | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Etoile Carouge |
| 26/08/25 Switzerland Challenge League | Etoile Carouge | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Stade Nyonnais |
| 31/03/25 Switzerland Challenge League | Etoile Carouge | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Stade Nyonnais |
| 07/03/25 Switzerland Challenge League | Stade Nyonnais | 0-3 HT 0-3 | Etoile Carouge |
Standings · Switzerland Challenge League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neuchatel Xamax | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Yverdon Sport FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| 4 | Winterthur | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 4 |
| 5 | Etoile Carouge | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Aarau | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 7 | Kriens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 8 | FC Rapperswil-Jona | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
| 9 | Wil 1900 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 3 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Stade Nyonnais | Etoile Carouge |
|---|---|---|
| Aarau | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| FC Vaduz | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Etoile Carouge (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stade Nyonnais
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | FC Amical Saint-Prex Switzerland Cup |
1-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 07/08 | Aarau Switzerland Challenge League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 31/07 | FC Rapperswil-Jona Switzerland Challenge League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 24/07 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Switzerland Challenge League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 11/07 | FC Bulle Europe Friendlies |
3-2 | 4-4 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 15/05 | FC Rapperswil-Jona Switzerland Challenge League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 11/05 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Switzerland Challenge League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Aarau Switzerland Challenge League |
1-5 | 1-5 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 01/05 | Wil 1900 Switzerland Challenge League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 24/04 | FC Vaduz Switzerland Challenge League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
Etoile Carouge
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | FC Collex Bossy Switzerland Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 07/08 | Neuchatel Xamax Switzerland Challenge League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 31/07 | Yverdon Sport FC Switzerland Challenge League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 24/07 | Aarau Switzerland Challenge League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | FC Lausanne-Sport Club Friendly List |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | FC Sion Europe Friendlies |
0-3 | 0-7 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 15/05 | AC Bellinzona Switzerland Challenge League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 11/05 | Neuchatel Xamax Switzerland Challenge League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | FC Vaduz Switzerland Challenge League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | Yverdon Sport FC Switzerland Challenge League |
2-2 | 5-3 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stade Nyonnais vs Etoile Carouge?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Etoile Carouge win (49%). Probabilities: Stade Nyonnais 26%, draw 26%, Etoile Carouge 49%.
How many goals are expected in Stade Nyonnais vs Etoile Carouge?
The model expects 2.82 goals (Stade Nyonnais 1.15 · Etoile Carouge 1.67), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Stade Nyonnais vs Etoile Carouge?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.