Football · Switzerland Super League · 26/07, 16:30
Prediction: Lugano vs FC Vaduz
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.94Total
Lugano1.98
FC Vaduz0.95
1X2
Lugano
Draw
FC Vaduz
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Lugano
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
FC Vaduz
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lugano
2–2–2
FC Vaduz
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lugano 1545 · FC Vaduz 1555
| Lugano | Draw | FC Vaduz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 23% | 16% |
| Market | 62% | 20% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lugano | FC Vaduz | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.8 | 1.7 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.1 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/70/0% | 25/50/25% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.6 | 2.6 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 4.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lugano 2–2–2 FC Vaduz
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/26 Europe Friendlies | Lugano | 1-2 HT 0-0 | FC Vaduz |
| 15/01/22 Europe Friendlies | Lugano | 3-0 HT 2-0 | FC Vaduz |
| 08/05/21 Switzerland Super League | Lugano | 0-2 HT 0-1 | FC Vaduz |
| 14/03/21 Switzerland Super League | FC Vaduz | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Lugano |
| 03/02/21 Switzerland Super League | Lugano | 1-1 HT 1-1 | FC Vaduz |
| 17/10/20 Switzerland Super League | FC Vaduz | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Lugano |
Standings · Switzerland Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Basel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lugano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lucerne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Sion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | St Gallen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Thun | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Vaduz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Zurich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Grasshoppers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Lausanne-Sport | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Servette | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Young Boys | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lugano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | FC Vaduz Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 10/07 | Heidenheim Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 07/07 | Memmingen Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | FC Rapperswil-Jona Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 27/06 | Neuchatel Xamax Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Basel Switzerland Super League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 14/05 | FC Sion Switzerland Super League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 10/05 | St Gallen Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 10 | L |
| 03/05 | Young Boys Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | FC Thun Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
FC Vaduz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Lugano Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 10/07 | SCR Altach Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 04/07 | Austria Lustenau Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | St Gallen Club Friendly List |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | Kriens Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/05 | Wil 1900 Switzerland Challenge League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 11/05 | Aarau Switzerland Challenge League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 08/05 | Etoile Carouge Switzerland Challenge League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 05/05 | USV Eschen-Mauren Liechtenstein Cup |
– | 4-3 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Switzerland Challenge League |
2-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lugano vs FC Vaduz?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lugano win (61%). Probabilities: Lugano 61%, draw 21%, FC Vaduz 17%.
How many goals are expected in Lugano vs FC Vaduz?
The model expects 2.94 goals (Lugano 1.98 · FC Vaduz 0.95), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Lugano vs FC Vaduz?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.