Football · Switzerland Super League · 05/09, 18:00

Prediction: Young Boys vs Lucerne

Team pages: Young Boys · Lucerne

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

Young Boys2.44

Lucerne1.25

1X2

63% 20% 17%

Young Boys Draw Lucerne

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Young Boys 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Lucerne 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Young Boys 4–1–1 Lucerne (6 last)

Lucerne1-2Young Boys
Young Boys2-0Lucerne
Lucerne1-2Young Boys
Young Boys2-1Lucerne
Lucerne5-0Young Boys
Lucerne1-1Young Boys

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Young Boys 1638 · Lucerne 1531

	Young Boys	Draw	Lucerne
Our model	63%	20%	17%
Market	62%	21%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Young Boys (rating 1638 vs 1531).
H2H favours Young Boys: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Young Boys	Lucerne
Goals for / against (FT)	3.4 / 1.8	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.9	2.7 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.40

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.88

Under 3.751.93

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.40 → 4.40	Bet365 4.40
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:16 +9’	1.48	4.40	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Young Boys 4–1–1 Lucerne

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/03/26 Switzerland Super League	Lucerne	1-2 HT 0-0	Young Boys
14/12/25 Switzerland Super League	Young Boys	2-0 HT 1-0	Lucerne
14/09/25 Switzerland Super League	Lucerne	1-2 HT 0-0	Young Boys
15/05/25 Switzerland Super League	Young Boys	2-1 HT 1-0	Lucerne
13/04/25 Switzerland Super League	Lucerne	5-0 HT 2-0	Young Boys
23/11/24 Switzerland Super League	Lucerne	1-1 HT 0-1	Young Boys

Standings · Switzerland Super League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lugano	4	4	0	0	13	3	12
2	Young Boys	5	3	2	0	19	9	11
3	Basel	5	3	1	1	10	7	10
4	St Gallen	4	2	1	1	10	9	7
5	FC Sion	4	2	0	2	9	8	6
6	FC Thun	4	2	0	2	9	14	6
7	FC Zurich	5	2	0	3	7	12	6
8	FC Lausanne-Sport	5	1	2	2	6	7	5
9	Lucerne	5	1	2	2	5	9	5
10	Servette	4	1	1	2	4	5	4
11	FC Vaduz	5	1	0	4	12	14	3
12	Grasshoppers	4	0	1	3	5	12	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Young Boys	Lucerne
FC Lausanne-Sport	2-2 D	1-0 W
FC Thun	6-0 W	1-3 L
FC Sion	4-2 W	0-3 L
St Gallen	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Young Boys

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Basel Switzerland Super League	3-2	3-3	9	5	D
23/08	FC Vaduz Switzerland Super League	2-2	4-2	6	4	W
08/08	FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League	0-0	2-2	2	7	D
01/08	FC Thun Switzerland Super League	3-0	6-0	5	2	W
26/07	FC Sion Switzerland Super League	2-1	4-2	6	3	W
17/05	FC Sion Switzerland Super League	1-1	3-3	5	3	D
14/05	FC Thun Switzerland Super League	3-2	8-3	1	8	W
10/05	Basel Switzerland Super League	0-0	3-0	5	3	W
03/05	Lugano Switzerland Super League	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
26/04	St Gallen Switzerland Super League	0-0	1-2	8	5	L

Lucerne

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Servette Switzerland Super League	1-1	1-1	1	6	D
22/08	FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
09/08	St Gallen Switzerland Super League	0-1	2-2	9	8	D
02/08	FC Sion Switzerland Super League	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
25/07	FC Thun Switzerland Super League	1-1	1-3	12	4	L
16/05	Winterthur Switzerland Super League	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
12/05	FC Zurich Switzerland Super League	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
09/05	Servette Switzerland Super League	0-2	3-3	6	4	D
02/05	FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League	0-1	3-1	7	4	W
25/04	Grasshoppers Switzerland Super League	0-1	2-1	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Young Boys vs Lucerne?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Young Boys win (63%). Probabilities: Young Boys 63%, draw 20%, Lucerne 17%.

How many goals are expected in Young Boys vs Lucerne?

The model expects 3.69 goals (Young Boys 2.44 · Lucerne 1.25), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Young Boys vs Lucerne?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.