Football · Switzerland Super League · 25/07, 20:30
Prediction: Lucerne vs FC Thun
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.73Total
Lucerne1.9
FC Thun1.82
1X2
Lucerne
Draw
FC Thun
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Lucerne
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
FC Thun
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lucerne
1–2–3
FC Thun
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lucerne 1520 · FC Thun 1494
| Lucerne | Draw | FC Thun | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 23% | 37% |
| Market | 39% | 25% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours FC Thun: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lucerne | FC Thun | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 13/63/25% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 7.6 | 3.3 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.2 | 5.3 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lucerne 1–2–3 FC Thun
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 Switzerland Super League | FC Thun | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Lucerne |
| 06/12/25 Switzerland Super League | FC Thun | 4-1 HT 3-0 | Lucerne |
| 09/08/25 Switzerland Super League | Lucerne | 1-2 HT 1-1 | FC Thun |
| 11/10/24 Club Friendly List | FC Thun | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Lucerne |
| 16/09/23 Switzerland Cup | FC Thun | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Lucerne |
| 31/01/23 Switzerland Cup | FC Thun | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Lucerne |
Standings · Switzerland Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Basel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lugano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lucerne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Sion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | St Gallen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Thun | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Vaduz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Zurich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Grasshoppers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Lausanne-Sport | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Servette | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Young Boys | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucerne
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Sint-Truidense Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 0 | L |
| 04/07 | Winterthur Europe Friendlies |
2-2 | 3-2 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Winterthur Switzerland Super League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 12/05 | FC Zurich Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Servette Switzerland Super League |
0-2 | 3-3 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Grasshoppers Switzerland Super League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 12/04 | St Gallen Switzerland Super League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 06/04 | Servette Switzerland Super League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
FC Thun
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Waldhof Mannheim Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Elversberg Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 26/06 | Breitenrain Club Friendly List |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 26/06 | Young Boys Club Friendly List |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 17/05 | St Gallen Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 14/05 | Young Boys Switzerland Super League |
2-3 | 3-8 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 10/05 | FC Sion Switzerland Super League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 02/05 | Basel Switzerland Super League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Lugano Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 18/04 | Basel Switzerland Super League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lucerne vs FC Thun?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lucerne win (40%). Probabilities: Lucerne 40%, draw 24%, FC Thun 36%.
How many goals are expected in Lucerne vs FC Thun?
The model expects 3.73 goals (Lucerne 1.9 · FC Thun 1.82), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Lucerne vs FC Thun?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.