Football · Finland Kolmonen · 10/09, 19:15

Prediction: HooGee vs MPS

Team pages: HooGee · MPS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.81Total

HooGee2.04

MPS1.77

1X2

45% 22% 34%

HooGee Draw MPS

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

HooGee 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLWLW

MPS 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLWLLLLDLW

Head-to-head

HooGee 0–1 MPS (1 last)

MPS2-0HooGee

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HooGee 1432 · MPS 1452

	HooGee	Draw	MPS
Our model	44%	23%	33%
Market	45%	21%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.81 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HooGee	MPS
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 3	1.1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.4	0.6 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4	0.9 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X4.33

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:00 +8’	2.00	4.33	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HooGee 0–0–1 MPS

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
05/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	MPS	2-0 HT 1-0	HooGee

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	18	12	4	2	61	24	40
2	ESPA	18	12	3	3	42	18	39
3	LePa	18	11	3	4	38	29	36
4	Poxyt	18	9	2	7	39	36	29
5	NuPS	18	7	5	6	30	24	26
6	Gilla FC	18	7	3	8	41	38	24
7	LoPa	18	7	3	8	29	31	24
8	GrIFK Reservi	18	7	2	9	33	38	23
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	18	5	3	10	26	45	18
10	MPS	18	4	4	10	18	32	16
11	HooGee	18	5	1	12	32	48	16
12	EPS Reservi	18	3	5	10	24	50	14

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HooGee	MPS
LoPa	3-1 W	1-2 L
GrIFK Reservi	0-2 L	0-3 L
EPS Reservi	2-0 W	0-0 D
LePa	4-5 L	0-2 L
PPJ/Ruoholahti	2-3 L	3-1 W
NuPS	3-4 L	0-2 L
Poxyt	1-2 L	3-2 W
Gilla FC	3-6 L	2-3 L
EIF Academy	2-4 L	0-4 L
ESPA	0-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 8 L	2 W 2 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: HooGee (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HooGee

LLLLLLLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-1	8	4	W
30/08	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
20/08	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
13/08	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-2	4-5	3	3	L
06/08	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-3	2	2	L
31/07	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-4	1	4	L
23/07	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-2	6	4	L
01/07	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	2-3	3-6	7	1	L
25/06	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-4	4	1	L
12/06	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-3	0-3	1	3	L

MPS

DLWLLLLDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	2-1	3-1	1	2	W
26/08	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
21/08	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
12/08	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	1	2	L
06/08	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
31/07	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	1-3	2-3	8	7	L
01/07	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	5	4	L
28/06	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-2	6	2	W
17/06	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
14/06	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HooGee vs MPS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HooGee win (45%). Probabilities: HooGee 45%, draw 22%, MPS 34%.

How many goals are expected in HooGee vs MPS?

The model expects 3.81 goals (HooGee 2.04 · MPS 1.77), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in HooGee vs MPS?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.