Football · Japan J-League · 21/10, 12:30

Prediction: Urawa Red Diamonds vs JEF Utd Chiba

Team pages: Urawa Red Diamonds · JEF Utd Chiba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Urawa Red Diamonds1.99

JEF Utd Chiba1.18

1X2

55% 24% 21%

Urawa Red Diamonds Draw JEF Utd Chiba

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Urawa Red Diamonds 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWLWLW

JEF Utd Chiba 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWDLDD

Head-to-head

Urawa Red Diamonds 2–0 JEF Utd Chiba (2 last)

Urawa Red Diamonds2-0JEF Utd Chiba
JEF Utd Chiba0-2Urawa Red Diamonds

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Urawa Red Diamonds 1573 · JEF Utd Chiba 1420

	Urawa Red Diamonds	Draw	JEF Utd Chiba
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	54%	25%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Urawa Red Diamonds (rating 1573 vs 1420).
H2H favours Urawa Red Diamonds: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Urawa Red Diamonds	JEF Utd Chiba
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.1	0.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.1	2.3 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.70

24.50

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.01

Under 2.751.83

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.98 ★
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.74

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:16 +16’	1.70	3.70	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:38 +13’	1.68	3.92	4.64
10:29 +26’	1.69▲	3.98▲	4.71▲
12:57 +29’	1.69▼	3.98	4.74▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Urawa Red Diamonds 2–0–0 JEF Utd Chiba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Japan J-League	Urawa Red Diamonds	2-0 HT 1-0	JEF Utd Chiba
07/02/26 Japan J-League	JEF Utd Chiba	0-2 HT 0-2	Urawa Red Diamonds

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	10	7	2	1	25	6	23
2	FC Tokyo	10	7	2	1	21	8	23
3	Kashiwa Reysol	10	7	0	3	22	17	21
4	Machida Zelvia	9	6	2	1	22	10	20
5	Kashima Antlers	10	6	1	3	21	16	19
6	Vissel Kobe	9	6	1	2	14	9	19
7	Kawasaki Frontale	10	4	4	2	21	16	16
8	Yokohama F-Marinos	10	4	4	2	13	9	16
9	Urawa Red Diamonds	10	5	0	5	17	21	15
10	Shimizu S-Pulse	10	4	2	4	10	11	14
11	Fagiano Okayama	9	4	1	4	12	12	13
12	Nagoya Grampus	10	4	0	6	12	16	12
13	Cerezo Osaka	10	3	3	4	9	16	12
14	Mito Hollyhock	10	2	3	5	12	14	9
15	V-Varen Nagasaki	10	2	3	5	11	18	9
16	Kyoto Sanga FC	10	2	2	6	11	19	8
17	Avispa Fukuoka	9	2	1	6	11	13	7
18	Gamba Osaka	10	1	4	5	10	18	7
19	JEF Utd Chiba	10	1	3	6	8	19	6
20	Tokyo Verdy	10	0	4	6	4	18	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Urawa Red Diamonds	JEF Utd Chiba
FC Tokyo	0-3 L	0-2 L
Tokyo Verdy	3-1 W	1-1 D
Fagiano Okayama	1-2 L	1-2 L
Yokohama F-Marinos	3-2 W	0-0 D
Machida Zelvia	1-3 L	0-4 L
Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1-4 L	0-3 L
Gamba Osaka	3-4 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Urawa Red Diamonds (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Urawa Red Diamonds

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	13	3	W
10/10	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	0-0	0-3	3	1	L
19/09	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	3-0	3-1	8	2	W
13/09	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
06/09	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
02/09	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	1-2	3-2	1	3	W
29/08	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	1-1	3-2	4	4	W
23/08	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League	1-1	1-3	3	1	L
15/08	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	1-2	1-4	1	3	L
07/08	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	1-2	3-4	6	4	L

JEF Utd Chiba

LLLLLWDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
11/10	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
19/09	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
13/09	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
06/09	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
02/09	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
29/08	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	2-4	2-4	4	6	L
21/08	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	0-0	0-2	1	1	L
15/08	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League	0-2	0-4	2	3	L
08/08	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	0-1	0-3	0	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Urawa Red Diamonds vs JEF Utd Chiba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Urawa Red Diamonds win (55%). Probabilities: Urawa Red Diamonds 55%, draw 24%, JEF Utd Chiba 21%.

How many goals are expected in Urawa Red Diamonds vs JEF Utd Chiba?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Urawa Red Diamonds 1.99 · JEF Utd Chiba 1.18), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Urawa Red Diamonds vs JEF Utd Chiba?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.