Football · Japan J-League · 21/10, 12:00

Prediction: FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol

Team pages: FC Tokyo · Kashiwa Reysol

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.43Total

FC Tokyo2.06

Kashiwa Reysol1.36

1X2

53% 23% 24%

FC Tokyo Draw Kashiwa Reysol

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Tokyo 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Kashiwa Reysol 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Tokyo 1–2–3 Kashiwa Reysol (6 last)

Kashiwa Reysol1-3FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo0-2Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol1-0FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo1-1Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol3-2FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo3-3Kashiwa Reysol

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Tokyo (rating 1604 vs 1554).
H2H favours Kashiwa Reysol: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Tokyo	Kashiwa Reysol
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.8	2.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.3	2.5 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0.3	1.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.02

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.19
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.53
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.22 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:46 +47’	2.15	3.40	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:14 +12’	2.15	3.55	3.29
09:29 +51’	2.19▲	3.53▼	3.22▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Tokyo 1–2–3 Kashiwa Reysol

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/26 Japan J-League	Kashiwa Reysol	1-3 HT 0-1	FC Tokyo
28/02/26 Japan J-League	FC Tokyo	0-2 HT 0-0	Kashiwa Reysol
05/07/25 Japan J-League	Kashiwa Reysol	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Tokyo
11/04/25 Japan J-League	FC Tokyo	1-1 HT 1-0	Kashiwa Reysol
06/07/24 Japan J-League	Kashiwa Reysol	3-2 HT 2-1	FC Tokyo
11/05/24 Japan J-League	FC Tokyo	3-3 HT 3-1	Kashiwa Reysol

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	10	7	2	1	25	6	23
2	FC Tokyo	10	7	2	1	21	8	23
3	Kashiwa Reysol	10	7	0	3	22	17	21
4	Machida Zelvia	9	6	2	1	22	10	20
5	Kashima Antlers	10	6	1	3	21	16	19
6	Vissel Kobe	9	6	1	2	14	9	19
7	Kawasaki Frontale	10	4	4	2	21	16	16
8	Yokohama F-Marinos	10	4	4	2	13	9	16
9	Urawa Red Diamonds	10	5	0	5	17	21	15
10	Shimizu S-Pulse	10	4	2	4	10	11	14
11	Fagiano Okayama	9	4	1	4	12	12	13
12	Nagoya Grampus	10	4	0	6	12	16	12
13	Cerezo Osaka	10	3	3	4	9	16	12
14	Mito Hollyhock	10	2	3	5	12	14	9
15	V-Varen Nagasaki	10	2	3	5	11	18	9
16	Kyoto Sanga FC	10	2	2	6	11	19	8
17	Avispa Fukuoka	9	2	1	6	11	13	7
18	Gamba Osaka	10	1	4	5	10	18	7
19	JEF Utd Chiba	10	1	3	6	8	19	6
20	Tokyo Verdy	10	0	4	6	4	18	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Tokyo	Kashiwa Reysol
Tokyo Verdy	4-0 W	3-1 W
Nagoya Grampus	1-0 W	1-3 L
Kyoto Sanga FC	2-0 W	3-2 W
Shimizu S-Pulse	1-1 D	1-0 W
V-Varen Nagasaki	3-0 W	4-2 W
Vissel Kobe	2-2 D	4-2 W
Machida Zelvia	1-5 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Tokyo (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Tokyo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	1-0	4-0	11	3	W
10/10	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	0-0	3-0	3	1	W
19/09	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
12/09	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	1-0	2-0	13	3	W
06/09	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
02/09	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	3	0	D
29/08	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
21/08	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
15/08	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
08/08	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League	1-2	1-5	2	3	L

Kashiwa Reysol

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	1-2	1-3	7	2	L
09/10	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	1-0	4-2	4	1	W
20/09	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League	0-1	4-2	8	4	W
11/09	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	0-2	3-2	5	5	W
06/09	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
02/09	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	9	1	L
29/08	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
21/08	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	1-0	4-2	8	1	W
14/08	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	1-1	3-1	5	3	W
08/08	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	2-0	2-1	1	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Tokyo win (53%). Probabilities: FC Tokyo 53%, draw 23%, Kashiwa Reysol 24%.

How many goals are expected in FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol?

The model expects 3.43 goals (FC Tokyo 2.06 · Kashiwa Reysol 1.36), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.