Football · Japan J-League · 21/10, 12:00

Prediction: Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka

Team pages: Nagoya Grampus · Cerezo Osaka

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Nagoya Grampus1.67

Cerezo Osaka1.62

1X2

38% 26% 36%

Nagoya Grampus Draw Cerezo Osaka

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Nagoya Grampus 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Cerezo Osaka 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Nagoya Grampus 3–1–2 Cerezo Osaka (6 last)

Cerezo Osaka6-1Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus3-0Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus2-1Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka1-1Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka2-1Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus2-1Cerezo Osaka

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nagoya Grampus 1501 · Cerezo Osaka 1533

	Nagoya Grampus	Draw	Cerezo Osaka
Our model	39%	25%	36%
Market	38%	27%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Nagoya Grampus: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nagoya Grampus	Cerezo Osaka
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	0.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.40

22.60

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.51
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.55 ★
2	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 2.71

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:30 +3’	2.45	3.40	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:14 +12’	2.51	3.55	2.71

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nagoya Grampus 3–1–2 Cerezo Osaka

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Japan J-League	Cerezo Osaka	6-1 HT 3-1	Nagoya Grampus
04/04/26 Japan J-League	Nagoya Grampus	3-0 HT 0-0	Cerezo Osaka
04/10/25 Japan J-League	Nagoya Grampus	2-1 HT 2-0	Cerezo Osaka
08/03/25 Japan J-League	Cerezo Osaka	1-1 HT 1-0	Nagoya Grampus
30/06/24 Japan J-League	Cerezo Osaka	2-1 HT 1-0	Nagoya Grampus
21/04/24 Japan J-League	Nagoya Grampus	2-1 HT 0-0	Cerezo Osaka

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	10	7	2	1	25	6	23
2	FC Tokyo	10	7	2	1	21	8	23
3	Kashiwa Reysol	10	7	0	3	22	17	21
4	Machida Zelvia	9	6	2	1	22	10	20
5	Kashima Antlers	10	6	1	3	21	16	19
6	Vissel Kobe	9	6	1	2	14	9	19
7	Kawasaki Frontale	10	4	4	2	21	16	16
8	Yokohama F-Marinos	10	4	4	2	13	9	16
9	Urawa Red Diamonds	10	5	0	5	17	21	15
10	Shimizu S-Pulse	10	4	2	4	10	11	14
11	Fagiano Okayama	9	4	1	4	12	12	13
12	Nagoya Grampus	10	4	0	6	12	16	12
13	Cerezo Osaka	10	3	3	4	9	16	12
14	Mito Hollyhock	10	2	3	5	12	14	9
15	V-Varen Nagasaki	10	2	3	5	11	18	9
16	Kyoto Sanga FC	10	2	2	6	11	19	8
17	Avispa Fukuoka	9	2	1	6	11	13	7
18	Gamba Osaka	10	1	4	5	10	18	7
19	JEF Utd Chiba	10	1	3	6	8	19	6
20	Tokyo Verdy	10	0	4	6	4	18	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nagoya Grampus	Cerezo Osaka
Kashiwa Reysol	3-1 W	2-0 W
Kawasaki Frontale	2-1 W	2-4 L
V-Varen Nagasaki	0-2 L	1-1 D
Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0-3 L	1-6 L
Fagiano Okayama	2-1 W	2-1 W
Shimizu S-Pulse	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nagoya Grampus

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	2-1	3-1	2	2	W
11/10	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
19/09	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
12/09	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
06/09	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League	0-1	1-3	6	3	L
02/09	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	0-0	0-3	1	3	L
29/08	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
22/08	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	1-1	3-1	4	4	W
15/08	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
08/08	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-1	0-1	13	2	L

Cerezo Osaka

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	1-2	2-4	3	5	L
10/10	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
19/09	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
12/09	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	0-3	1-6	4	1	L
06/09	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	10	1	D
02/09	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	1-0	2-0	7	1	W
29/08	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	9	3	L
22/08	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
15/08	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	0-2	0-3	2	1	L
08/08	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	2-1	2-1	5	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nagoya Grampus win (38%). Probabilities: Nagoya Grampus 38%, draw 26%, Cerezo Osaka 36%.

How many goals are expected in Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Nagoya Grampus 1.67 · Cerezo Osaka 1.62), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.