Football · Japan J-League · 21/10, 12:00
Prediction: Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock
Team pages: Fagiano Okayama · Mito Hollyhock
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.75Total
Fagiano Okayama1.75
Mito Hollyhock1
1X2
Fagiano Okayama
Draw
Mito Hollyhock
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Fagiano Okayama
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Mito Hollyhock
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Fagiano Okayama
3–3–0
Mito Hollyhock
(6 last)
- Mito Hollyhock0-0Fagiano Okayama
- Fagiano Okayama1-0Mito Hollyhock
- Fagiano Okayama1-0Mito Hollyhock
- Mito Hollyhock1-1Fagiano Okayama
- Mito Hollyhock1-1Fagiano Okayama
- Fagiano Okayama2-1Mito Hollyhock
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fagiano Okayama 1494 · Mito Hollyhock 1504
| Fagiano Okayama | Draw | Mito Hollyhock | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Fagiano Okayama: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fagiano Okayama | Mito Hollyhock | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.5 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6.1 | 1.6 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 2.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fagiano Okayama 3–3–0 Mito Hollyhock
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/24 Japan J2-League | Mito Hollyhock | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Fagiano Okayama |
| 20/03/24 Japan J2-League | Fagiano Okayama | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Mito Hollyhock |
| 01/07/23 Japan J2-League | Fagiano Okayama | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Mito Hollyhock |
| 05/03/23 Japan J2-League | Mito Hollyhock | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Fagiano Okayama |
| 25/06/22 Japan J2-League | Mito Hollyhock | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Fagiano Okayama |
| 04/05/22 Japan J2-League | Fagiano Okayama | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Mito Hollyhock |
Standings · Japan J-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 6 | 23 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Kashiwa Reysol | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 17 | 21 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 20 |
| 5 | Kashima Antlers | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 16 | 19 |
| 6 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 19 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 16 | 16 |
| 8 | Yokohama F-Marinos | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 16 |
| 9 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 21 | 15 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 14 |
| 11 | Fagiano Okayama | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| 12 | Nagoya Grampus | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 12 |
| 13 | Cerezo Osaka | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 12 |
| 14 | Mito Hollyhock | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 9 |
| 15 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 9 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 7 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 7 |
| 19 | JEF Utd Chiba | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 6 |
| 20 | Tokyo Verdy | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 4 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Fagiano Okayama | Mito Hollyhock |
|---|---|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Kyoto Sanga FC | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Urawa Red Diamonds | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Mito Hollyhock (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fagiano Okayama
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/09 | JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 08/08 | Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 24/05 | Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
Mito Hollyhock
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 11/10 | Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 02/09 | Kashima Antlers Japan J-League |
2-0 | 4-2 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Machida Zelvia Japan J-League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 22/08 | Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 15/08 | Gamba Osaka Japan J-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 08/08 | Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Fagiano Okayama win (54%). Probabilities: Fagiano Okayama 54%, draw 26%, Mito Hollyhock 20%.
How many goals are expected in Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock?
The model expects 2.75 goals (Fagiano Okayama 1.75 · Mito Hollyhock 1), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.