Football · Japan J-League · 21/10, 12:00

Prediction: Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka

Team pages: Avispa Fukuoka · Gamba Osaka

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Avispa Fukuoka1.43

Gamba Osaka1.4

1X2

37% 27% 36%

Avispa Fukuoka Draw Gamba Osaka

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Avispa Fukuoka 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLDLLW

Gamba Osaka 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

WDLDDLLLLD

Head-to-head

Avispa Fukuoka 3–2–1 Gamba Osaka (6 last)

Gamba Osaka1-2Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka2-2Gamba Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka1-0Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka2-1Avispa Fukuoka
Gamba Osaka2-2Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka1-0Gamba Osaka

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gamba Osaka (rating 1438 vs 1488).
H2H favours Avispa Fukuoka: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Avispa Fukuoka	Gamba Osaka
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.6	1.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.87

Under 2.51.97

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 16:32

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.57 → 2.57	Pinn 2.57
X	3.45 → 3.49▲	Pinn 3.49
2	2.62 → 2.67▲	Pinn 2.67

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
09:12 +6’	2.57	3.45	2.62
10:13 +6’	2.58▲	3.50▲	2.65▲
14:43 +109’	2.57▼	3.49▼	2.67▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Avispa Fukuoka 3–2–1 Gamba Osaka

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Japan J-League	Gamba Osaka	1-2 HT 1-2	Avispa Fukuoka
21/03/26 Japan J-League	Avispa Fukuoka	2-2 HT 1-2	Gamba Osaka
30/11/25 Japan J-League	Avispa Fukuoka	1-0 HT 0-0	Gamba Osaka
22/02/25 Japan J-League	Gamba Osaka	2-1 HT 1-0	Avispa Fukuoka
24/08/24 Japan J-League	Gamba Osaka	2-2 HT 1-2	Avispa Fukuoka
03/05/24 Japan J-League	Avispa Fukuoka	1-0 HT 1-0	Gamba Osaka

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	10	7	2	1	25	6	23
2	FC Tokyo	10	7	2	1	21	8	23
3	Kashiwa Reysol	10	7	0	3	22	17	21
4	Machida Zelvia	9	6	2	1	22	10	20
5	Kashima Antlers	10	6	1	3	21	16	19
6	Vissel Kobe	9	6	1	2	14	9	19
7	Kawasaki Frontale	10	4	4	2	21	16	16
8	Yokohama F-Marinos	10	4	4	2	13	9	16
9	Urawa Red Diamonds	10	5	0	5	17	21	15
10	Shimizu S-Pulse	10	4	2	4	10	11	14
11	Fagiano Okayama	9	4	1	4	12	12	13
12	Nagoya Grampus	10	4	0	6	12	16	12
13	Cerezo Osaka	10	3	3	4	9	16	12
14	Mito Hollyhock	10	2	3	5	12	14	9
15	V-Varen Nagasaki	10	2	3	5	11	18	9
16	Kyoto Sanga FC	10	2	2	6	11	19	8
17	Avispa Fukuoka	9	2	1	6	11	13	7
18	Gamba Osaka	10	1	4	5	10	18	7
19	JEF Utd Chiba	10	1	3	6	8	19	6
20	Tokyo Verdy	10	0	4	6	4	18	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Avispa Fukuoka	Gamba Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0-1 L	0-0 D
Shimizu S-Pulse	0-1 L	2-2 D
Mito Hollyhock	1-1 D	1-1 D
Urawa Red Diamonds	2-3 L	4-3 W
Kashima Antlers	2-3 L	0-2 L
Vissel Kobe	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gamba Osaka (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Avispa Fukuoka

LLWLLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
19/09	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
12/09	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
05/09	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
02/09	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	2-1	2-3	5	3	L
29/08	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
22/08	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	1-1	2-3	8	2	L
15/08	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	2-0	3-0	4	1	W
08/08	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
23/05	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-1	0-1	6	3	L

Gamba Osaka

WDLDDLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-2	2-2	4	3	D
09/10	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
20/09	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
12/09	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
06/09	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
02/09	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	0-0	2-2	5	3	D
29/08	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
22/08	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	1-1	1-3	3	4	L
15/08	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-1	1-1	9	1	D
07/08	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	2-1	4-3	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Avispa Fukuoka win (37%). Probabilities: Avispa Fukuoka 37%, draw 27%, Gamba Osaka 36%.

How many goals are expected in Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Avispa Fukuoka 1.43 · Gamba Osaka 1.4), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.