Football · Japan J-League · 21/10, 12:00
Prediction: V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Team pages: V-Varen Nagasaki · Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.92Total
V-Varen Nagasaki1.04
Sanfrecce Hiroshima1.88
1X2
V-Varen Nagasaki
Draw
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
V-Varen Nagasaki
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
V-Varen Nagasaki
0–4
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
(4 last)
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima2-0V-Varen Nagasaki
- V-Varen Nagasaki1-3Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima2-0V-Varen Nagasaki
- V-Varen Nagasaki0-2Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima (rating 1451 vs 1633).
- H2H favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 4-0-0.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| V-Varen Nagasaki | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.8 | 2.5 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 4.2 | 3 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0 | 2.7 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · V-Varen Nagasaki 0–0–4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Japan J-League | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2-0 HT 1-0 | V-Varen Nagasaki |
| 06/02/26 Japan J-League | V-Varen Nagasaki | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
| 11/08/18 Japan J-League | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2-0 HT 1-0 | V-Varen Nagasaki |
| 28/04/18 Japan J-League | V-Varen Nagasaki | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
Standings · Japan J-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 6 | 23 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Kashiwa Reysol | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 17 | 21 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 20 |
| 5 | Kashima Antlers | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 16 | 19 |
| 6 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 19 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 16 | 16 |
| 8 | Yokohama F-Marinos | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 16 |
| 9 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 21 | 15 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 14 |
| 11 | Fagiano Okayama | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| 12 | Nagoya Grampus | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 12 |
| 13 | Cerezo Osaka | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 12 |
| 14 | Mito Hollyhock | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 9 |
| 15 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 9 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 7 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 7 |
| 19 | JEF Utd Chiba | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 6 |
| 20 | Tokyo Verdy | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | V-Varen Nagasaki | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|
| JEF Utd Chiba | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Cerezo Osaka | 1-1 D | 6-1 W |
| Nagoya Grampus | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Gamba Osaka | 2-2 D | 0-0 D |
| Fagiano Okayama | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Kyoto Sanga FC | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 1 L | 4 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
V-Varen Nagasaki
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Kashima Antlers Japan J-League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 11/10 | JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 12/09 | Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Vissel Kobe Japan J-League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 02/09 | Gamba Osaka Japan J-League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 29/08 | FC Tokyo Japan J-League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 21/08 | Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League |
0-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 15/08 | Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 09/08 | Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 11/10 | Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 16 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League |
3-0 | 6-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 06/09 | Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 02/09 | Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Gamba Osaka Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win (56%). Probabilities: V-Varen Nagasaki 19%, draw 24%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 56%.
How many goals are expected in V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
The model expects 2.92 goals (V-Varen Nagasaki 1.04 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.88), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.