Football · Japan J-League · 21/10, 12:00

Prediction: Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia

Team pages: Shimizu S-Pulse · Machida Zelvia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Shimizu S-Pulse1.03

Machida Zelvia1.35

1X2

27% 29% 43%

Shimizu S-Pulse Draw Machida Zelvia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Shimizu S-Pulse 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLWWWD

Machida Zelvia 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWWDLW

Head-to-head

Shimizu S-Pulse 3–1–2 Machida Zelvia (6 last)

Machida Zelvia3-0Shimizu S-Pulse
Shimizu S-Pulse2-2Machida Zelvia
Shimizu S-Pulse3-2Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia2-1Shimizu S-Pulse
Shimizu S-Pulse2-0Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia1-2Shimizu S-Pulse

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shimizu S-Pulse 1508 · Machida Zelvia 1603

	Shimizu S-Pulse	Draw	Machida Zelvia
Our model	27%	30%	43%
Market	28%	29%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Machida Zelvia (rating 1508 vs 1603).
H2H favours Shimizu S-Pulse: 3-1-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shimizu S-Pulse	Machida Zelvia
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	2.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.9	1.6 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.1	2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.20

22.10

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.83

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.39
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.47 ★
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.14

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:28 +4’	3.30	3.20	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:12 +6’	3.35	3.44	2.12
10:14 +6’	3.39▲	3.48▲	2.14▲
14:42 +110’	3.39	3.47▼	2.14

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Shimizu S-Pulse 3–1–2 Machida Zelvia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/07/25 Japan J-League	Machida Zelvia	3-0 HT 1-0	Shimizu S-Pulse
11/05/25 Japan J-League	Shimizu S-Pulse	2-2 HT 0-1	Machida Zelvia
19/08/23 Japan J2-League	Shimizu S-Pulse	3-2 HT 1-2	Machida Zelvia
21/05/23 Japan J2-League	Machida Zelvia	2-1 HT 1-1	Shimizu S-Pulse
08/10/16 Japan J2-League	Shimizu S-Pulse	2-0 HT 1-0	Machida Zelvia
08/06/16 Japan J2-League	Machida Zelvia	1-2 HT 0-1	Shimizu S-Pulse

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	10	7	2	1	25	6	23
2	FC Tokyo	10	7	2	1	21	8	23
3	Kashiwa Reysol	10	7	0	3	22	17	21
4	Machida Zelvia	9	6	2	1	22	10	20
5	Kashima Antlers	10	6	1	3	21	16	19
6	Vissel Kobe	9	6	1	2	14	9	19
7	Kawasaki Frontale	10	4	4	2	21	16	16
8	Yokohama F-Marinos	10	4	4	2	13	9	16
9	Urawa Red Diamonds	10	5	0	5	17	21	15
10	Shimizu S-Pulse	10	4	2	4	10	11	14
11	Fagiano Okayama	9	4	1	4	12	12	13
12	Nagoya Grampus	10	4	0	6	12	16	12
13	Cerezo Osaka	10	3	3	4	9	16	12
14	Mito Hollyhock	10	2	3	5	12	14	9
15	V-Varen Nagasaki	10	2	3	5	11	18	9
16	Kyoto Sanga FC	10	2	2	6	11	19	8
17	Avispa Fukuoka	9	2	1	6	11	13	7
18	Gamba Osaka	10	1	4	5	10	18	7
19	JEF Utd Chiba	10	1	3	6	8	19	6
20	Tokyo Verdy	10	0	4	6	4	18	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shimizu S-Pulse	Machida Zelvia
Mito Hollyhock	2-1 W	1-1 D
JEF Utd Chiba	2-1 W	4-0 W
Kawasaki Frontale	1-3 L	2-1 W
FC Tokyo	1-1 D	5-1 W
Kashiwa Reysol	0-1 L	2-4 L
Yokohama F-Marinos	0-1 L	1-1 D
Nagoya Grampus	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Machida Zelvia (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shimizu S-Pulse

WLLLDLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	2-0	2-2	7	3	D
11/10	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-0	2-1	1	3	W
19/09	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	0-1	2-1	8	2	W
12/09	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	1	2	W
06/09	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	0-1	1-3	5	5	L
02/09	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	4	0	D
29/08	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
22/08	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
15/08	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
08/08	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	1-0	1-0	7	2	W

Machida Zelvia

WWWWDWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	10	2	W
20/09	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	1-0	2-4	1	4	L
12/09	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
06/09	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
02/09	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	0-0	2-1	6	0	W
29/08	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
23/08	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	1-1	3-1	1	1	W
15/08	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	2-0	4-0	8	3	W
08/08	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	2-1	5-1	5	3	W
22/05	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	1-0	1-0	5	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Machida Zelvia win (43%). Probabilities: Shimizu S-Pulse 27%, draw 29%, Machida Zelvia 43%.

How many goals are expected in Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Shimizu S-Pulse 1.03 · Machida Zelvia 1.35), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.