Football · Japan J2-League · 07/11, 06:00
Prediction: Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama
Team pages: Sagan Tosu · Kataller Toyama
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.67Total
Sagan Tosu1.28
Kataller Toyama1.39
1X2
Sagan Tosu
Draw
Kataller Toyama
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Sagan Tosu
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Kataller Toyama
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sagan Tosu
2–1
Kataller Toyama
(3 last)
- Sagan Tosu4-0Kataller Toyama
- Kataller Toyama3-1Sagan Tosu
- Sagan Tosu1-0Kataller Toyama
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kataller Toyama (rating 1465 vs 1537).
- H2H favours Sagan Tosu: 2-0-1.
- High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sagan Tosu | Kataller Toyama | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 7.4 | 2.6 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sagan Tosu 2–0–1 Kataller Toyama
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/26 Japan FA Cup | Sagan Tosu | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Kataller Toyama |
| 09/11/25 Japan J2-League | Kataller Toyama | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Sagan Tosu |
| 23/03/25 Japan J2-League | Sagan Tosu | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Kataller Toyama |
Standings · Japan J2-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 13 | 27 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 24 | 26 |
| 3 | Kataller Toyama | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 14 | 25 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 25 |
| 5 | Omiya Ardija | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 25 | 17 | 24 |
| 6 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 16 | 23 |
| 7 | Shonan Bellmare | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 22 |
| 8 | Iwaki FC | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 20 | 20 |
| 9 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 19 | 20 |
| 10 | Oita | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 19 |
| 11 | Jubilo Iwata | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 19 |
| 12 | Blaublitz Akita | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 17 |
| 13 | Sagan Tosu | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 17 |
| 14 | Tokushima Vortis | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 17 |
| 15 | Fujieda MYFC | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 16 |
| 16 | Montedio Yamagata | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 14 | 16 |
| 17 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 24 | 14 |
| 18 | Tochigi City | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | 12 |
| 19 | FC Imabari | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 27 | 12 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 12 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sagan Tosu | Kataller Toyama |
|---|---|---|
| Jubilo Iwata | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Albirex Niigata | 1-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Omiya Ardija | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Montedio Yamagata | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 4 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Kataller Toyama (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sagan Tosu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Jubilo Iwata Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 25/10 | Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 21/10 | Albirex Niigata Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 17/10 | Omiya Ardija Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 10/10 | Fujieda MYFC Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 04/10 | Blaublitz Akita Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 26/09 | Montedio Yamagata Japan J2-League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 19/09 | Iwaki FC Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | FC Imabari Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
Kataller Toyama
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Albirex Niigata Japan J2-League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 25/10 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 21/10 | Omiya Ardija Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 17/10 | Shonan Bellmare Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 11/10 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 03/10 | Ventforet Kofu Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 26/09 | Yokohama FC Japan J2-League |
1-3 | 3-3 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 19/09 | Montedio Yamagata Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Tochigi City Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 06/09 | Jubilo Iwata Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Kataller Toyama win (38%). Probabilities: Sagan Tosu 33%, draw 28%, Kataller Toyama 38%.
How many goals are expected in Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama?
The model expects 2.67 goals (Sagan Tosu 1.28 · Kataller Toyama 1.39), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.