Prediction: Western Mass Pioneers vs Vermont Green
Expected goals: 3.89 (Western Mass Pioneers 1.69 · Vermont Green 2.2). The model gives 29% home, 22% draw, 49% away. Over 3.25 goals (56%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Western Mass Pioneers is 6-3-1 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Vermont Green 9-1-0 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 2 wins for Western Mass Pioneers and 2 for Vermont Green, with 2 draws.
| Western Mass Pioneers | Draw | Vermont Green | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 22% | 49% |
| Market | 29% | 22% | 49% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vermont Green (rating 1546 vs 1634).
- High corners: 13 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Western Mass Pioneers | Vermont Green | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1 | 4.5 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 2.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 80/20/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 5 | 3.5 / 8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 1.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Western Mass Pioneers 2–2–2 Vermont Green
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/25 USA USL League Two | Western Mass Pioneers | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Vermont Green |
| 18/06/25 USA USL League Two | Vermont Green | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Western Mass Pioneers |
| 14/07/24 USA USL League Two | Western Mass Pioneers | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Vermont Green |
| 16/06/24 USA USL League Two | Vermont Green | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Western Mass Pioneers |
| 08/07/23 USA USL League Two | Western Mass Pioneers | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Vermont Green |
| 18/06/23 USA USL League Two | Vermont Green | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Western Mass Pioneers |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Northeast Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vermont Green | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 60 | 10 | 37 |
| 2 | New England FC | 13 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 21 | 33 |
| 3 | Western Mass Pioneers | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 16 | 27 |
| 4 | Albany Rush | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 32 | 19 |
| 5 | Black Rock FC | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 16 | 20 |
| 6 | Seacoast United Phantoms | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 28 | 14 |
| 7 | Connecticut Rush | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | 14 |
| 8 | Boston Bolts | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 26 | 12 |
| 9 | AC Connecticut | 13 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 17 | 29 | 6 |
| 10 | Boston City FC | 13 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 49 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Western Mass Pioneers | Vermont Green |
|---|---|---|
| AC Connecticut | 2-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Black Rock FC | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Boston Bolts | 2-1 W | 5-0 W |
| Connecticut Rush | 1-0 W | 6-2 W |
| Boston City FC | 5-2 W | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 0 L | 5 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Vermont Green (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Western Mass Pioneers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | AC Connecticut USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 04/07 | Black Rock FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 01/07 | Boston Bolts USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | AC Connecticut USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 24/06 | Albany Rush USA USL League Two |
1-3 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 20/06 | Boston Bolts USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/06 | Connecticut Rush USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 11/06 | Boston City FC USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 5-2 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 04/06 | Black Rock FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 30/05 | Connecticut Rush USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
Vermont Green
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Connecticut Rush USA USL League Two |
3-1 | 6-2 | – | – | W |
| 01/07 | New England FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 27/06 | Black Rock FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/06 | Boston City FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | Boston City FC USA USL League Two |
4-1 | 10-1 | – | – | W |
| 17/06 | Seacoast United Phantoms USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 14/06 | New England FC USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/06 | AC Connecticut USA USL League Two |
3-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 03/06 | Boston Bolts USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/05 | Black Rock FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Western Mass Pioneers vs Vermont Green?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Vermont Green win (49%). Probabilities: Western Mass Pioneers 29%, draw 22%, Vermont Green 49%.
How many goals are expected in Western Mass Pioneers vs Vermont Green?
The model expects 3.89 goals (Western Mass Pioneers 1.69 · Vermont Green 2.2), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Western Mass Pioneers vs Vermont Green?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.