Football · USA USL League Two · 12/07, 01:00
Prediction: Black Rock FC vs Boston City FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.29Total
Black Rock FC3.14
Boston City FC1.14
1X2
Black Rock FC
Draw
Boston City FC
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
3-1
Recent form · 10 last
Black Rock FC
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Boston City FC
0-2-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Black Rock FC
3–2–1
Boston City FC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Black Rock FC 1528 · Boston City FC 1397
| Black Rock FC | Draw | Boston City FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Market | 82% | 11% | 7% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Black Rock FC (rating 1528 vs 1397).
- H2H favours Black Rock FC: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Black Rock FC | Boston City FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.3 | 1.6 / 4.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 2.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/70/0% | 0/30/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.9 | 1.6 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.3 | 1.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Black Rock FC 3–2–1 Boston City FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/25 USA USL League Two | Black Rock FC | 5-0 HT 4-0 | Boston City FC |
| 19/06/25 USA USL League Two | Boston City FC | 3-3 HT 2-2 | Black Rock FC |
| 10/07/24 USA USL League Two | Black Rock FC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Boston City FC |
| 20/06/24 USA USL League Two | Boston City FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Black Rock FC |
| 11/07/23 USA USL League Two | Black Rock FC | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Boston City FC |
| 08/06/23 USA USL League Two | Boston City FC | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Black Rock FC |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Northeast Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vermont Green | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 60 | 10 | 37 |
| 2 | New England FC | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 21 | 36 |
| 3 | Western Mass Pioneers | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 16 | 27 |
| 4 | Black Rock FC | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 16 | 20 |
| 5 | Albany Rush | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 33 | 19 |
| 6 | Seacoast United Phantoms | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 28 | 14 |
| 7 | Connecticut Rush | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | 14 |
| 8 | Boston Bolts | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 26 | 12 |
| 9 | AC Connecticut | 13 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 17 | 29 | 6 |
| 10 | Boston City FC | 13 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 49 | 3 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Black Rock FC | Boston City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Bolts | 0-0 D | 2-4 L |
| Seacoast United Phantoms | 3-3 D | 2-5 L |
| Western Mass Pioneers | 1-1 D | 2-5 L |
| Vermont Green | 1-3 L | 1-4 L |
| AC Connecticut | 2-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Albany Rush | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| New England FC | 1-2 L | 2-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 2 L | 0 W 1 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Black Rock FC (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Black Rock FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Boston Bolts USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 07/07 | Seacoast United Phantoms USA USL League Two |
2-2 | 3-3 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 04/07 | Western Mass Pioneers USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 28/06 | Seacoast United Phantoms USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | Vermont Green USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 24/06 | AC Connecticut USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | AC Connecticut USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 11/06 | Albany Rush USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 07/06 | New England FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 04/06 | Western Mass Pioneers USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
Boston City FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | New England FC USA USL League Two |
0-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 02/07 | Seacoast United Phantoms USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 2-5 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 28/06 | Connecticut Rush USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 24/06 | Vermont Green USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 21/06 | Vermont Green USA USL League Two |
1-4 | 1-10 | – | – | L |
| 17/06 | Boston Bolts USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | Albany Rush USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 11/06 | Western Mass Pioneers USA USL League Two |
0-3 | 2-5 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 07/06 | Albany Rush USA USL League Two |
1-3 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | AC Connecticut USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Black Rock FC vs Boston City FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Black Rock FC win (79%). Probabilities: Black Rock FC 79%, draw 13%, Boston City FC 8%.
How many goals are expected in Black Rock FC vs Boston City FC?
The model expects 4.29 goals (Black Rock FC 3.14 · Boston City FC 1.14), with a 55% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Black Rock FC vs Boston City FC?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.