Football · USA USL League Two · 12/07, 01:30
Prediction: Ironbound vs Manhattan SC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.92Total
Ironbound2.36
Manhattan SC1.56
1X2
Ironbound
Draw
Manhattan SC
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Ironbound
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Manhattan SC
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ironbound
2–3
Manhattan SC
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ironbound 1584 · Manhattan SC 1502
| Ironbound | Draw | Manhattan SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 21% | 24% |
| Market | 55% | 21% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.92 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ironbound (rating 1584 vs 1502).
- H2H favours Manhattan SC: 3-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ironbound | Manhattan SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.1 | 2.8 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/30/0% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 6 | 1.8 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0 | 2.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ironbound 2–0–3 Manhattan SC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/25 USA USL League Two | Ironbound | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Manhattan SC |
| 26/06/25 USA USL League Two | Manhattan SC | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Ironbound |
| 23/05/24 USA USL League Two | Manhattan SC | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Ironbound |
| 25/06/23 USA USL League Two | Manhattan SC | 3-2 HT 3-2 | Ironbound |
| 11/06/23 USA USL League Two | Ironbound | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Manhattan SC |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Metropolitan Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Motown STA | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 40 | 7 | 28 |
| 2 | Ironbound | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 13 | 27 |
| 3 | Long Island Rough Riders | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 8 | 24 |
| 4 | Cedar Stars Rush | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 18 |
| 5 | Hudson Valley Hammers | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 25 | 17 |
| 6 | Manhattan SC | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 23 | 15 |
| 7 | Staten Island ASC | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 29 | 7 |
| 8 | New Jersey Copa | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 7 |
| 9 | Morris Elite | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 33 | 7 |
| 10 | Westchester Flames | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 5 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ironbound | Manhattan SC |
|---|---|---|
| Staten Island ASC | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| New Jersey Copa | 2-1 W | 6-0 W |
| FC Motown STA | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Westchester Flames | 3-3 D | 0-5 L |
| Long Island Rough Riders | 2-2 D | 0-4 L |
| Hudson Valley Hammers | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Morris Elite | 2-0 W | 5-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 0 L | 2 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Ironbound (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ironbound
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Cedar Stars Rush USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 06/07 | Staten Island ASC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | New Jersey Copa USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 25/06 | FC Motown STA USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/06 | Westchester Flames USA USL League Two |
3-2 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 14/06 | Cedar Stars Rush USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/06 | New Jersey Copa USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Long Island Rough Riders USA USL League Two |
2-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 28/05 | Hudson Valley Hammers USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 21/05 | Morris Elite USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
Manhattan SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | New Jersey Copa USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/07 | Hudson Valley Hammers USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 21/06 | Hudson Valley Hammers USA USL League Two |
3-1 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 17/06 | Long Island Rough Riders USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 14/06 | Westchester Flames USA USL League Two |
0-3 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 11/06 | Morris Elite USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 07/06 | FC Motown STA USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 04/06 | Staten Island ASC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 31/05 | Morris Elite USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 28/05 | Westchester Flames USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 6-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ironbound vs Manhattan SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ironbound win (55%). Probabilities: Ironbound 55%, draw 21%, Manhattan SC 24%.
How many goals are expected in Ironbound vs Manhattan SC?
The model expects 3.92 goals (Ironbound 2.36 · Manhattan SC 1.56), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ironbound vs Manhattan SC?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.