Football · Serbia Super Liga · 25/07, 20:00
Prediction: OFK Beograd vs FK Radnik Surdulica
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.05Total
OFK Beograd1.24
FK Radnik Surdulica0.81
1X2
OFK Beograd
Draw
FK Radnik Surdulica
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
OFK Beograd
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
FK Radnik Surdulica
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
OFK Beograd
0–2–4
FK Radnik Surdulica
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · OFK Beograd 1453 · FK Radnik Surdulica 1506
| OFK Beograd | Draw | FK Radnik Surdulica | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 32% | 23% |
| Market | 48% | 27% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Radnik Surdulica (rating 1453 vs 1506).
- H2H favours FK Radnik Surdulica: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| OFK Beograd | FK Radnik Surdulica | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.5 | 1 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.9 | 1.9 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · OFK Beograd 0–2–4 FK Radnik Surdulica
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Serbia Super Liga | OFK Beograd | 1-1 HT 1-1 | FK Radnik Surdulica |
| 09/04/26 Serbia Super Liga | OFK Beograd | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Radnik Surdulica |
| 08/11/25 Serbia Super Liga | FK Radnik Surdulica | 1-0 HT 0-0 | OFK Beograd |
| 23/10/19 Serbia Cup | OFK Beograd | 1-2 HT 1-1 | FK Radnik Surdulica |
| 01/02/17 World Club Friendlies | FK Radnik Surdulica | 5-3 HT 3-1 | OFK Beograd |
| 06/12/15 Serbia Super Liga | FK Radnik Surdulica | 2-1 HT 0-0 | OFK Beograd |
Standings · Serbia Super Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crvena Zvezda | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | FK Zeleznicar Pancevo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | IMT Novi Belgrade | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | FK Novi Pazar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Partizan Belgrade | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 7 | FK Zemun | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 8 | Mladost Lucani | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | FK Radnik Surdulica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Radnicki Nis | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | FK Cukaricki | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 | FK Radnicki 1923 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | OFK Beograd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 | FK Macva Sabac | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | OFK Beograd | FK Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|
| Vojvodina | 0-4 L | 1-4 L |
| Buducnost Podgorica | 0-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Crvena Zvezda | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Partizan Belgrade | 1-1 D | 0-5 L |
| FK Zeleznicar Pancevo | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: FK Radnik Surdulica (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
OFK Beograd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 09/07 | Buducnost Podgorica Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 08/07 | OFK Vrsac Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 01/07 | FK Radnicki 1923 Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 22/05 | Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 02/05 | FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 22/04 | FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
FK Radnik Surdulica
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 09/07 | FK Novi Pazar Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | Buducnost Podgorica Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 30/06 | Levski Sofia Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga |
0-2 | 0-5 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 7 | D |
| 04/05 | Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga |
0-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 22/04 | FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in OFK Beograd vs FK Radnik Surdulica?
According to our model, the most likely result is a OFK Beograd win (47%). Probabilities: OFK Beograd 47%, draw 29%, FK Radnik Surdulica 24%.
How many goals are expected in OFK Beograd vs FK Radnik Surdulica?
The model expects 2.05 goals (OFK Beograd 1.24 · FK Radnik Surdulica 0.81), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in OFK Beograd vs FK Radnik Surdulica?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.