Football · Serbia Super Liga · 26/07, 20:30
Prediction: Mladost Lucani vs FK Novi Pazar
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.37Total
Mladost Lucani1.18
FK Novi Pazar1.18
1X2
Mladost Lucani
Draw
FK Novi Pazar
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Mladost Lucani
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
FK Novi Pazar
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Mladost Lucani
1–2–3
FK Novi Pazar
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mladost Lucani 1555 · FK Novi Pazar 1478
| Mladost Lucani | Draw | FK Novi Pazar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 31% | 35% |
| Market | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mladost Lucani (rating 1555 vs 1478).
- H2H favours FK Novi Pazar: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mladost Lucani | FK Novi Pazar | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.1 | 1.5 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.2 | 3.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mladost Lucani 1–2–3 FK Novi Pazar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/26 Europe Friendlies | Mladost Lucani | 3-1 HT 2-1 | FK Novi Pazar |
| 09/03/26 Serbia Super Liga | Mladost Lucani | 0-2 HT 0-1 | FK Novi Pazar |
| 04/10/25 Serbia Super Liga | FK Novi Pazar | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Mladost Lucani |
| 08/07/25 Europe Friendlies | FK Novi Pazar | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Mladost Lucani |
| 28/04/25 Serbia Super Liga | Mladost Lucani | 1-1 HT 1-0 | FK Novi Pazar |
| 20/12/24 Serbia Super Liga | Mladost Lucani | 1-3 HT 0-2 | FK Novi Pazar |
Standings · Serbia Super Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crvena Zvezda | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | FK Zeleznicar Pancevo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | IMT Novi Belgrade | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | FK Novi Pazar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Partizan Belgrade | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 7 | FK Zemun | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 8 | Mladost Lucani | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | FK Radnik Surdulica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Radnicki Nis | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | FK Cukaricki | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 | FK Radnicki 1923 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | OFK Beograd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 | FK Macva Sabac | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mladost Lucani | FK Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|
| FK Radnik Surdulica | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| FK Macva Sabac | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| FK Radnicki 1923 | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Mladost Lucani (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mladost Lucani
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 05/07 | FK Macva Sabac Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 01/07 | IMT Novi Belgrade Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 28/06 | FK Novi Pazar Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | FK Napredak Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 16/05 | Javor Ivanjica Serbia Super Liga |
0-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Spartak Subotica Serbia Super Liga |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 27/04 | FK Backa Topola Serbia Super Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 23/04 | FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
FK Novi Pazar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 09/07 | FK Radnik Surdulica Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 01/07 | FK Macva Sabac Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | Mladost Lucani Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 09/05 | Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 02/05 | Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 22/04 | FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mladost Lucani vs FK Novi Pazar?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Mladost Lucani win (35%). Probabilities: Mladost Lucani 35%, draw 29%, FK Novi Pazar 35%.
How many goals are expected in Mladost Lucani vs FK Novi Pazar?
The model expects 2.37 goals (Mladost Lucani 1.18 · FK Novi Pazar 1.18), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Mladost Lucani vs FK Novi Pazar?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.