Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 14/08, 20:00
Prediction: Heracles vs FC Den Bosch
Team pages: Heracles · FC Den Bosch
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.96Total
Heracles1.96
FC Den Bosch1
1X2
Heracles
Draw
FC Den Bosch
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Heracles
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
FC Den Bosch
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Heracles
3–0
FC Den Bosch
(3 last)
- Heracles3-2FC Den Bosch
- FC Den Bosch1-2Heracles
- FC Den Bosch1-2Heracles
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Heracles 1437 · FC Den Bosch 1471
| Heracles | Draw | FC Den Bosch | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 24% | 18% |
| Market | 60% | 21% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Heracles: 3-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Heracles | FC Den Bosch | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 2.4 | 1.2 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.9 | 2.5 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.3 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Heracles 3–0–0 FC Den Bosch
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/03/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie | Heracles | 3-2 HT 3-1 | FC Den Bosch |
| 30/09/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie | FC Den Bosch | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Heracles |
| 25/09/18 Netherlands Cup | FC Den Bosch | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Heracles |
Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | PSV Reserves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | FC Dordrecht | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Maastricht | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | NAC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | FC Eindhoven | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | FC Emmen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Almere City FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | De Graafschap | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | FC Den Bosch | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Helmond Sport | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | RKC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | VVV | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 | FC Volendam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Ajax Reserves | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | FC Utrecht Reserves | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Top Oss | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 | AZ Reserves | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Roda JC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Heracles
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
2-0 | 4-3 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 08/07 | FC Groningen Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 26/04 | FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 05/04 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 20/03 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 15/03 | AZ Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
FC Den Bosch
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 31/07 | Al Fayha World Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | FC Eindhoven Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 29/04 | Almere City FC Netherlands Eredivisie Play-Offs |
2-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 24/04 | ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 20/04 | FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 17/04 | Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
1-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 10/04 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 06/04 | Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Heracles vs FC Den Bosch?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Heracles win (60%). Probabilities: Heracles 60%, draw 22%, FC Den Bosch 18%.
How many goals are expected in Heracles vs FC Den Bosch?
The model expects 2.96 goals (Heracles 1.96 · FC Den Bosch 1), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs FC Den Bosch?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.