Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 20/11, 20:00

Prediction: FC Utrecht Reserves vs FC Emmen

Team pages: FC Utrecht Reserves · FC Emmen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

FC Utrecht Reserves1.42

FC Emmen1.87

1X2

28% 24% 47%

FC Utrecht Reserves Draw FC Emmen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Utrecht Reserves 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDWWLLLLWD

FC Emmen 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWWLLL

Head-to-head

FC Utrecht Reserves 0–6 FC Emmen (6 last)

FC Emmen1-0FC Utrecht Reserves
FC Utrecht Reserves1-2FC Emmen
FC Emmen2-0FC Utrecht Reserves
FC Utrecht Reserves1-2FC Emmen
FC Utrecht Reserves2-3FC Emmen
FC Emmen2-0FC Utrecht Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Utrecht Reserves 1468 · FC Emmen 1499

	FC Utrecht Reserves	Draw	FC Emmen
Our model	28%	24%	47%
Market	28%	24%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Emmen: 6-0-0.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Utrecht Reserves	FC Emmen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.1	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.5	2.9 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.80

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.08 ★
2	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.02

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:10 +3’	3.25	3.80	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:42 +10’	3.20	3.97	1.96
18:34 +9’	3.24▲	4.02▲	1.98▲
05:06 +4’	3.10▼	4.08▲	2.02▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Utrecht Reserves 0–0–6 FC Emmen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/03/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Emmen	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Utrecht Reserves
07/11/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	1-2 HT 1-0	FC Emmen
14/03/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Emmen	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Utrecht Reserves
30/08/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	1-2 HT 1-0	FC Emmen
15/03/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	2-3 HT 1-0	FC Emmen
18/09/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Emmen	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Utrecht Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	15	12	2	1	46	16	38
2	Almere City FC	15	10	1	4	36	15	31
3	VVV	15	9	2	4	38	24	29
4	NAC	15	8	4	3	29	22	28
5	Roda JC	15	8	4	3	21	18	28
6	FC Emmen	15	8	1	6	28	30	25
7	FC Volendam	15	7	1	7	34	27	22
8	Maastricht	14	6	2	6	19	29	20
9	RKC	15	4	8	3	27	20	20
10	FC Den Bosch	15	5	4	6	24	26	19
11	Vitesse	13	5	3	5	17	18	18
12	AZ Reserves	14	5	2	7	33	31	17
13	PSV Reserves	14	4	5	5	18	22	17
14	Top Oss	15	5	2	8	22	24	17
15	Ajax Reserves	14	4	4	6	22	30	16
16	De Graafschap	14	4	3	7	18	29	15
17	FC Eindhoven	15	4	2	9	20	32	14
18	Helmond Sport	15	3	3	9	26	37	12
19	FC Dordrecht	15	3	3	9	19	36	12
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	14	3	2	9	23	34	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Utrecht Reserves	FC Emmen
FC Den Bosch	1-1 D	0-5 L
FC Dordrecht	3-2 W	3-0 W
De Graafschap	1-2 L	1-2 L
NAC	3-2 W	2-4 L
FC Eindhoven	0-0 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Utrecht Reserves (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Utrecht Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
02/11	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-1	3-2	5	2	W
23/10	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-3	2-6	14	1	L
19/10	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
09/10	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-2	5	3	L
18/09	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-3	5	2	L
14/09	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-0	6-1	5	7	W
11/09	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	3-2	1	5	W
07/09	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
31/08	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	6	3	L

FC Emmen

LLWDWWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-4	7	4	L
08/11	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
01/11	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-5	4	0	L
23/10	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	2-0	7	2	W
17/10	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	2-1	8	5	W
09/10	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
03/10	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	8	6	D
26/09	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	11	1	W
18/09	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-3	2	4	L
11/09	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	13	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Utrecht Reserves vs FC Emmen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Emmen win (47%). Probabilities: FC Utrecht Reserves 28%, draw 24%, FC Emmen 47%.

How many goals are expected in FC Utrecht Reserves vs FC Emmen?

The model expects 3.28 goals (FC Utrecht Reserves 1.42 · FC Emmen 1.87), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Utrecht Reserves vs FC Emmen?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.