Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 20/11, 20:00

Prediction: Top Oss vs Roda JC

Team pages: Top Oss · Roda JC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Top Oss1.13

Roda JC1.74

1X2

24% 25% 51%

Top Oss Draw Roda JC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Top Oss 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLDLDW

Roda JC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLDWWWLW

Head-to-head

Top Oss 1–1–4 Roda JC (6 last)

Roda JC1-2Top Oss
Top Oss1-2Roda JC
Top Oss0-2Roda JC
Roda JC0-0Top Oss
Top Oss1-4Roda JC
Roda JC2-0Top Oss

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Top Oss 1520 · Roda JC 1549

	Top Oss	Draw	Roda JC
Our model	24%	26%	50%
Market	24%	25%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Roda JC: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Top Oss	Roda JC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.9	2.9 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.70

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 4.00 ★
2	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.93

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.9% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
11:10 +3’	3.80	3.70	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:58	3.35	3.94	1.92
21:41 +3’	3.39▲	4.00▲	1.93▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Top Oss 1–1–4 Roda JC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/01/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Roda JC	1-2 HT 0-0	Top Oss
26/09/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Top Oss	1-2 HT 0-1	Roda JC
17/01/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Top Oss	0-2 HT 0-1	Roda JC
16/08/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Roda JC	0-0 HT 0-0	Top Oss
12/04/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Top Oss	1-4 HT 0-3	Roda JC
25/08/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Roda JC	2-0 HT 1-0	Top Oss

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	15	12	2	1	46	16	38
2	Almere City FC	15	10	1	4	36	15	31
3	VVV	15	9	2	4	38	24	29
4	NAC	15	8	4	3	29	22	28
5	Roda JC	15	8	4	3	21	18	28
6	FC Emmen	15	8	1	6	28	30	25
7	FC Volendam	15	7	1	7	34	27	22
8	Maastricht	14	6	2	6	19	29	20
9	RKC	15	4	8	3	27	20	20
10	FC Den Bosch	15	5	4	6	24	26	19
11	Vitesse	13	5	3	5	17	18	18
12	AZ Reserves	14	5	2	7	33	31	17
13	PSV Reserves	14	4	5	5	18	22	17
14	Top Oss	15	5	2	8	22	24	17
15	Ajax Reserves	14	4	4	6	22	30	16
16	De Graafschap	14	4	3	7	18	29	15
17	FC Eindhoven	15	4	2	9	20	32	14
18	Helmond Sport	15	3	3	9	26	37	12
19	FC Dordrecht	15	3	3	9	19	36	12
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	14	3	2	9	23	34	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Top Oss	Roda JC
RKC	1-1 D	2-0 W
Heracles	0-2 L	1-5 L
Ajax Reserves	3-3 D	0-0 D
VVV	1-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Top Oss

LWLWWLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-1	0	2	W
06/11	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
02/11	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
23/10	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	3-3	4	4	D
16/10	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	1-2	9	2	L
09/10	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	3-1	6	5	W
03/10	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	4-1	3	0	W
26/09	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
18/09	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	3-0	1	6	W
11/09	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-3	3	3	L

Roda JC

WDWLDWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-1	7	0	W
06/11	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-3	1-5	2	2	L
30/10	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
23/10	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	3-2	14	0	W
19/10	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-1	11	2	W
09/10	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	7	0	D
04/10	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	3	7	L
26/09	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
18/09	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
12/09	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Top Oss vs Roda JC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Roda JC win (51%). Probabilities: Top Oss 24%, draw 25%, Roda JC 51%.

How many goals are expected in Top Oss vs Roda JC?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Top Oss 1.13 · Roda JC 1.74), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Top Oss vs Roda JC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.