Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 14/11, 20:00

Prediction: De Graafschap vs Top Oss

Team pages: De Graafschap · Top Oss

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.43Total

De Graafschap1.94

Top Oss1.49

1X2

47% 24% 29%

De Graafschap Draw Top Oss

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

De Graafschap 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLWDWLDW

Top Oss 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWLDLD

Head-to-head

De Graafschap 5–1–0 Top Oss (6 last)

Top Oss2-3De Graafschap
De Graafschap1-1Top Oss
Top Oss0-2De Graafschap
De Graafschap4-0Top Oss
De Graafschap4-1Top Oss
De Graafschap2-1Top Oss

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours De Graafschap: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	De Graafschap	Top Oss
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.9	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.1	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.96

Under 3.51.83

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:30

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Pinn 1.60
X	4.42 → 4.42	Pinn 4.42
2	4.64 → 4.64	Pinn 4.64

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:30	1.60	4.42	4.64

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · De Graafschap 5–1–0 Top Oss

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/12/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Top Oss	2-3 HT 1-0	De Graafschap
18/10/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap	1-1 HT 0-1	Top Oss
16/03/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Top Oss	0-2 HT 0-1	De Graafschap
22/11/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap	4-0 HT 4-0	Top Oss
29/10/24 Netherlands Cup	De Graafschap	4-1 HT 2-1	Top Oss
01/03/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap	2-1 HT 1-0	Top Oss

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	14	11	2	1	44	15	35
2	VVV	14	9	2	3	37	22	29
3	Almere City FC	14	9	1	4	30	14	28
4	FC Emmen	13	8	1	4	26	24	25
5	NAC	14	7	4	3	25	20	25
6	Roda JC	14	7	4	3	18	17	25
7	FC Volendam	14	7	1	6	33	24	22
8	FC Den Bosch	14	5	4	5	24	22	19
9	Vitesse	13	5	3	5	17	18	18
10	Maastricht	13	5	2	6	17	29	17
11	RKC	14	3	8	3	23	20	17
12	AZ Reserves	14	5	2	7	33	31	17
13	PSV Reserves	14	4	5	5	18	22	17
14	Ajax Reserves	14	4	4	6	22	30	16
15	De Graafschap	13	4	3	6	17	27	15
16	Top Oss	14	4	2	8	20	23	14
17	Helmond Sport	14	3	3	8	25	31	12
18	FC Dordrecht	14	3	3	8	18	34	12
19	FC Utrecht Reserves	14	3	2	9	23	34	11
20	FC Eindhoven	14	3	2	9	18	31	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	De Graafschap	Top Oss
RKC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Ajax Reserves	1-2 L	3-3 D
FC Den Bosch	1-0 W	1-2 L
FC Emmen	2-1 W	0-1 L
Heracles	0-5 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

De Graafschap

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-1	8	1	W
23/10	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	5	1	D
19/10	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
09/10	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
03/10	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
27/09	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
20/09	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-2	2	4	L
11/09	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
04/09	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-5	1	4	L
29/08	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-4	9	2	L

Top Oss

LLWLWWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
02/11	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
23/10	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	3-3	4	4	D
16/10	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	1-2	9	2	L
09/10	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	3-1	6	5	W
03/10	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	4-1	3	0	W
26/09	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
18/09	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	3-0	1	6	W
11/09	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-3	3	3	L
04/09	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-2	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in De Graafschap vs Top Oss?

According to our model, the most likely result is a De Graafschap win (47%). Probabilities: De Graafschap 47%, draw 24%, Top Oss 29%.

How many goals are expected in De Graafschap vs Top Oss?

The model expects 3.43 goals (De Graafschap 1.94 · Top Oss 1.49), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Top Oss?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.