Football · France Ligue 2 · 08/08, 20:45
Prediction: Metz vs Guingamp
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.83Total
Metz1.69
Guingamp1.13
1X2
Metz
Draw
Guingamp
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Metz
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Guingamp
0-2-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Metz
2–2–2
Guingamp
(6 last)
- Guingamp0-3Metz
- Metz1-0Guingamp
- Guingamp1-1Metz
- Metz3-6Guingamp
- Guingamp2-2Metz
- Metz1-3Guingamp
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Metz 1510 · Guingamp 1411
| Metz | Draw | Guingamp | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 26% | 24% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Metz (rating 1510 vs 1411).
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Metz | Guingamp | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.7 | 0.8 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5 | 1.9 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 2.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Metz 2–2–2 Guingamp
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/25 France Ligue 2 | Guingamp | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Metz |
| 25/10/24 France Ligue 2 | Metz | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Guingamp |
| 20/05/23 France Ligue 2 | Guingamp | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Metz |
| 12/09/22 France Ligue 2 | Metz | 3-6 HT 3-3 | Guingamp |
| 24/02/18 France Ligue 1 | Guingamp | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Metz |
| 05/08/17 France Ligue 1 | Metz | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Guingamp |
Standings · France Ligue 2
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Etienne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Clermont Foot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dijon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Guingamp | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Annecy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Metz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nantes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Grenoble | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Montpellier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nancy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pau | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Red Star FC 93 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rodez Aveyron | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sochaux | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Laval | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Reims | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Boulogne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dunkerque | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Metz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Fortuna Sittard Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 22/07 | Sochaux Club Friendly List |
3-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 17/07 | Seraing United Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Union Luxembourg Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Versailles 78 Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 17/05 | Nice France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 10/05 | Lorient France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Monaco France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Le Havre France Ligue 1 |
2-2 | 4-4 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 19/04 | Paris FC France Ligue 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
Guingamp
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Brest Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 25/07 | Lorient Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 22/07 | Concarneau Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 17/07 | Rennes Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 09/05 | Clermont Foot France Ligue 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | SC Bastia France Ligue 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 24/04 | Red Star FC 93 France Ligue 2 |
1-3 | 2-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 17/04 | Pau France Ligue 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 10/04 | Grenoble France Ligue 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 03/04 | Annecy France Ligue 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Metz vs Guingamp?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Metz win (49%). Probabilities: Metz 49%, draw 26%, Guingamp 24%.
How many goals are expected in Metz vs Guingamp?
The model expects 2.83 goals (Metz 1.69 · Guingamp 1.13), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Guingamp?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.