Football · France Ligue 2 · 08/08, 20:45
Prediction: Montpellier vs Dijon
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.66Total
Montpellier1.65
Dijon1.01
1X2
Montpellier
Draw
Dijon
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Montpellier
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Dijon
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Montpellier
2–3–1
Dijon
(6 last)
- Montpellier4-2Dijon
- Dijon2-2Montpellier
- Montpellier2-1Dijon
- Dijon2-2Montpellier
- Dijon1-1Montpellier
- Montpellier1-2Dijon
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Montpellier 1549 · Dijon 1585
| Montpellier | Draw | Dijon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Market | 51% | 28% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Montpellier: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Montpellier | Dijon | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.4 | 2.4 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.8 | 1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 70/20/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4 / 6 | 1.3 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0.1 | 2.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Montpellier 2–3–1 Dijon
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/21 France Ligue 1 | Montpellier | 4-2 HT 0-1 | Dijon |
| 27/09/20 France Ligue 1 | Dijon | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Montpellier |
| 25/01/20 France Ligue 1 | Montpellier | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Dijon |
| 04/12/19 France Ligue 1 | Dijon | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Montpellier |
| 13/01/19 France Ligue 1 | Dijon | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Montpellier |
| 11/08/18 France Ligue 1 | Montpellier | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Dijon |
Standings · France Ligue 2
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Etienne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Clermont Foot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dijon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Guingamp | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Annecy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Metz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nantes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Grenoble | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Montpellier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nancy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pau | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Red Star FC 93 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rodez Aveyron | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sochaux | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Laval | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Reims | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Boulogne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dunkerque | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Montpellier
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Rodez Aveyron Club Friendly List |
3-0 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 25/07 | Clermont Foot Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 22/07 | Cannes Europe Friendlies |
2-2 | 3-4 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 17/07 | Le Puy Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 5-2 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Aubagne Air Bel Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 3-2 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Red Star FC 93 France Ligue 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Clermont Foot France Ligue 2 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 24/04 | Amiens France Ligue 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 17/04 | Grenoble France Ligue 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 10/04 | Annecy France Ligue 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
Dijon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Nancy Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 25/07 | Sochaux Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 22/07 | Bourg-Peronnas Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Progres Niedercorn Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/07 | UNFP Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 5-2 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Le Puy Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 15/05 | US Orleans 45 France National |
1-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Le Puy France National |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 30/04 | Chateauroux France National |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 24/04 | Valenciennes France National |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Montpellier vs Dijon?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Montpellier win (51%). Probabilities: Montpellier 51%, draw 27%, Dijon 22%.
How many goals are expected in Montpellier vs Dijon?
The model expects 2.66 goals (Montpellier 1.65 · Dijon 1.01), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Dijon?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.