Football · France Ligue 2 · 05/09, 20:00

Prediction: St Etienne vs Montpellier

Team pages: St Etienne · Montpellier

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

St Etienne1.82

Montpellier0.99

1X2

56% 25% 19%

St Etienne Draw Montpellier

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

St Etienne 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLLLWWWW

Montpellier 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWLDDWWD

Head-to-head

St Etienne 6–0 Montpellier (6 last)

St Etienne1-0Montpellier
Montpellier0-2St Etienne
Montpellier0-2St Etienne
St Etienne1-0Montpellier
Montpellier1-2St Etienne
St Etienne3-1Montpellier

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St Etienne 1546 · Montpellier 1556

	St Etienne	Draw	Montpellier
Our model	56%	25%	19%
Market	56%	26%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours St Etienne: 6-0-0.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St Etienne	Montpellier
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1	1.1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 5.5	3.3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.50

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:10 +6’	1.61	3.50	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · St Etienne 6–0–0 Montpellier

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 France Ligue 2	St Etienne	1-0 HT 0-0	Montpellier
04/10/25 France Ligue 2	Montpellier	0-2 HT 0-2	St Etienne
16/03/25 France Ligue 1	Montpellier	0-2 HT 0-1	St Etienne
23/11/24 France Ligue 1	St Etienne	1-0 HT 0-0	Montpellier
31/07/24 Elite Club Friendlies	Montpellier	1-2 HT 0-1	St Etienne
05/02/22 France Ligue 1	St Etienne	3-1 HT 0-1	Montpellier

Standings · France Ligue 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	St Etienne	3	3	0	0	10	1	9
2	Reims	4	2	2	0	10	5	8
3	Montpellier	4	2	2	0	3	1	8
4	Rodez Aveyron	4	2	1	1	10	7	7
5	Nancy	4	2	1	1	3	1	7
6	Annecy	4	2	1	1	5	4	7
7	Metz	4	1	3	0	4	3	6
8	Red Star FC 93	4	1	2	1	3	5	5
9	Sochaux	4	1	2	1	1	3	5
10	Dunkerque	4	1	1	2	7	8	4
11	Guingamp	4	1	1	2	5	6	4
12	Pau	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
13	Grenoble	4	1	1	2	5	8	4
14	Laval	4	1	1	2	4	8	4
15	Boulogne	4	0	3	1	1	2	3
16	Clermont Foot	4	0	3	1	2	4	3
17	Dijon	3	0	2	1	2	3	2
18	Nantes	4	0	1	3	6	11	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St Etienne	Montpellier
Grenoble	4-0 W	2-1 W
Clermont Foot	3-1 W	1-2 L
Amiens	5-0 W	2-0 W
Troyes	0-3 L	2-2 D
Dunkerque	2-1 W	1-0 W
Nancy	1-1 D	1-0 W
Annecy	4-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: St Etienne (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

St Etienne

WDWLLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Grenoble France Ligue 2	3-0	4-0	6	4	W
14/08	Clermont Foot France Ligue 2	1-0	3-1	7	2	W
08/08	Sochaux France Ligue 2	3-0	3-0	1	1	W
09/05	Amiens France Ligue 2	2-0	5-0	3	2	W
02/05	Rodez Aveyron France Ligue 2	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
25/04	Troyes France Ligue 2	0-0	0-3	9	6	L
18/04	SC Bastia France Ligue 2	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
11/04	Dunkerque France Ligue 2	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
04/04	Nancy France Ligue 2	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
21/03	Annecy France Ligue 2	3-0	4-0	6	2	W

Montpellier

DDWWLDDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Boulogne France Ligue 2	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
21/08	Dunkerque France Ligue 2	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
14/08	Nancy France Ligue 2	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
08/08	Dijon France Ligue 2	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
09/05	Red Star FC 93 France Ligue 2	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
02/05	Clermont Foot France Ligue 2	1-2	1-2	11	4	L
24/04	Amiens France Ligue 2	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
17/04	Grenoble France Ligue 2	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
10/04	Annecy France Ligue 2	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
04/04	Troyes France Ligue 2	2-1	2-2	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St Etienne vs Montpellier?

According to our model, the most likely result is a St Etienne win (56%). Probabilities: St Etienne 56%, draw 25%, Montpellier 19%.

How many goals are expected in St Etienne vs Montpellier?

The model expects 2.81 goals (St Etienne 1.82 · Montpellier 0.99), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in St Etienne vs Montpellier?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.