Football · France Ligue 2 · 11/09, 20:00

Prediction: Montpellier vs Pau

Team pages: Montpellier · Pau

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.71Total
Montpellier1.87
Pau0.84
1X2
61% 24% 15%
Montpellier Draw Pau
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Montpellier 4-4-2 (W-D-L)
DWWLDDWWDL
Pau 3-2-5 (W-D-L)
WWLLLLWLDD
Head-to-head
Montpellier 0–1–2 Pau (3 last)
  • Pau0-0Montpellier
  • Montpellier0-1Pau
  • Pau2-1Montpellier
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Montpellier (rating 1551 vs 1451).
  • H2H favours Pau: 2-1-0.
  • Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

MontpellierPau
Goals for / against (FT)1 / 0.81.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)0.4 / 0.40.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)20/60/20%40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)3.1 / 5.81.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.6 / 0.23.2 / 0.3

Head-to-head (H2H) · Montpellier 012 Pau

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DateHomeScoreAway
20/03/26
France Ligue 2
Pau0-0
HT 0-0
Montpellier
06/12/25
France Ligue 2
Montpellier0-1
HT 0-1
Pau
06/01/23
France Cup
Pau2-1
HT 1-0
Montpellier

Standings · France Ligue 2

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 St Etienne 5500 16415
2 Annecy 5311 7510
3 Reims 5230 1279
4 Metz 5230 849
5 Montpellier 5221 448
6 Red Star FC 93 5221 568
7 Nancy 4211 317
8 Rodez Aveyron 5212 11117
9 Sochaux 5131 246
10 Dunkerque 5122 895
11 Guingamp 5122 785
12 Pau 5122 455
13 Boulogne 5041 234
14 Clermont Foot 5041 354
15 Grenoble 5113 6104
16 Laval 5113 5104
17 Dijon 5032 573
18 Nantes 4013 6111

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentMontpellierPau
Nancy 1-0 W 0-1 L
Dijon 1-1 D 1-0 W
Amiens 2-0 W 1-0 W
Annecy 0-0 D 0-1 L
Record vs common 2 W 2 D 0 L 2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Montpellier (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Montpellier

DWWLDDWWDL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
05/09 St Etienne
France Ligue 2
1-1 1-3 43 L
28/08 Boulogne
France Ligue 2
0-0 0-0 75 D
21/08 Dunkerque
France Ligue 2
0-0 1-0 75 W
14/08 Nancy
France Ligue 2
0-0 1-0 67 W
08/08 Dijon
France Ligue 2
0-0 1-1 45 D
09/05 Red Star FC 93
France Ligue 2
0-1 1-1 32 D
02/05 Clermont Foot
France Ligue 2
1-2 1-2 114 L
24/04 Amiens
France Ligue 2
1-0 2-0 74 W
17/04 Grenoble
France Ligue 2
1-0 2-1 42 W
10/04 Annecy
France Ligue 2
0-0 0-0 51 D

Pau

WWLLLLWLDD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
04/09 Sochaux
France Ligue 2
1-0 1-1 84 D
28/08 Rodez Aveyron
France Ligue 2
2-1 2-2 34 D
21/08 Nancy
France Ligue 2
0-0 0-1 55 L
14/08 Dijon
France Ligue 2
0-0 1-0 22 W
08/08 Annecy
France Ligue 2
0-1 0-1 64 L
09/05 Reims
France Ligue 2
2-2 3-5 33 L
02/05 Nancy
France Ligue 2
1-0 1-3 54 L
24/04 Annecy
France Ligue 2
0-3 1-5 31 L
17/04 Guingamp
France Ligue 2
0-1 2-1 74 W
10/04 Amiens
France Ligue 2
1-0 1-0 44 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Montpellier vs Pau?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Montpellier win (61%). Probabilities: Montpellier 61%, draw 24%, Pau 15%.

How many goals are expected in Montpellier vs Pau?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Montpellier 1.87 · Pau 0.84), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Pau?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.