Football · France Ligue 2 · 19/09, 14:00

Prediction: Guingamp vs Red Star FC 93

Team pages: Guingamp · Red Star FC 93

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Guingamp1.64

Red Star FC 931.42

1X2

41% 28% 31%

Guingamp Draw Red Star FC 93

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Guingamp 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLDDW

Red Star FC 93 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWDDLW

Head-to-head

Guingamp 0–4 Red Star FC 93 (4 last)

Red Star FC 933-2Guingamp
Guingamp0-4Red Star FC 93
Red Star FC 933-1Guingamp
Guingamp3-4Red Star FC 93

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guingamp 1436 · Red Star FC 93 1504

	Guingamp	Draw	Red Star FC 93
Our model	42%	26%	32%
Market	40%	29%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Red Star FC 93 (rating 1436 vs 1504).
H2H favours Red Star FC 93: 4-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guingamp	Red Star FC 93
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.8	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.10

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:14 +1’	2.20	3.10	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guingamp 0–0–4 Red Star FC 93

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 France Ligue 2	Red Star FC 93	3-2 HT 3-1	Guingamp
23/08/25 France Ligue 2	Guingamp	0-4 HT 0-1	Red Star FC 93
01/03/25 France Ligue 2	Red Star FC 93	3-1 HT 1-1	Guingamp
30/08/24 France Ligue 2	Guingamp	3-4 HT 2-2	Red Star FC 93

Standings · France Ligue 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	St Etienne	6	5	0	1	17	6	15
2	Reims	6	3	3	0	14	8	12
3	Montpellier	6	3	2	1	5	4	11
4	Annecy	6	3	1	2	8	7	10
5	Metz	5	2	3	0	8	4	9
6	Sochaux	6	2	3	1	3	4	9
7	Dunkerque	6	2	2	2	10	10	8
8	Guingamp	6	2	2	2	9	9	8
9	Red Star FC 93	5	2	2	1	5	6	8
10	Nancy	6	2	1	3	4	4	7
11	Rodez Aveyron	6	2	1	3	11	12	7
12	Grenoble	6	2	1	3	7	10	7
13	Dijon	6	1	3	2	8	9	6
14	Boulogne	6	0	5	1	2	3	5
15	Pau	6	1	2	3	4	6	5
16	Clermont Foot	6	0	5	1	3	5	5
17	Nantes	6	1	1	4	7	12	4
18	Laval	6	1	1	4	7	13	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guingamp	Red Star FC 93
Reims	2-2 D	1-4 L
Nantes	3-3 D	1-0 W
Sochaux	0-1 L	0-0 D
Boulogne	1-0 W	1-1 D
SC Bastia	0-1 L	4-3 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Red Star FC 93 (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guingamp

LLLLLWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Annecy France Ligue 2	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
05/09	Reims France Ligue 2	1-0	2-2	3	2	D
29/08	Nantes France Ligue 2	2-1	3-3	1	2	D
21/08	Sochaux France Ligue 2	0-1	0-1	8	6	L
14/08	Boulogne France Ligue 2	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
08/08	Metz France Ligue 2	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
09/05	Clermont Foot France Ligue 2	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
02/05	SC Bastia France Ligue 2	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
24/04	Red Star FC 93 France Ligue 2	1-3	2-3	8	3	L
17/04	Pau France Ligue 2	1-0	1-2	1	4	L

Red Star FC 93

WLWWDWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Laval France Ligue 2	2-0	2-1	6	7	W
29/08	Reims France Ligue 2	1-2	1-4	7	6	L
21/08	Boulogne France Ligue 2	1-0	1-1	3	8	D
14/08	Sochaux France Ligue 2	0-0	0-0	12	2	D
08/08	Nantes France Ligue 2	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
09/05	Montpellier France Ligue 2	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
02/05	Amiens France Ligue 2	1-0	3-1	8	2	W
24/04	Guingamp France Ligue 2	3-1	3-2	0	3	W
18/04	Reims France Ligue 2	0-2	2-3	5	8	L
11/04	SC Bastia France Ligue 2	1-3	4-3	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guingamp vs Red Star FC 93?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guingamp win (41%). Probabilities: Guingamp 41%, draw 28%, Red Star FC 93 31%.

How many goals are expected in Guingamp vs Red Star FC 93?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Guingamp 1.64 · Red Star FC 93 1.42), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Red Star FC 93?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.