Football · Brazil Paulista Cup · 09/08, 16:00

Prediction: EC Sao Bernardo vs Sao Caetano

Team pages: EC Sao Bernardo · Sao Caetano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

EC Sao Bernardo1.71

Sao Caetano1.03

1X2

52% 27% 21%

EC Sao Bernardo Draw Sao Caetano

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

EC Sao Bernardo 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLDWLWLW

Sao Caetano 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLDLDL

Head-to-head

EC Sao Bernardo 3–1–2 Sao Caetano (6 last)

Sao Caetano1-4EC Sao Bernardo
Sao Caetano1-1EC Sao Bernardo
EC Sao Bernardo1-2Sao Caetano
EC Sao Bernardo1-0Sao Caetano
Sao Caetano2-0EC Sao Bernardo
EC Sao Bernardo1-0Sao Caetano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · EC Sao Bernardo 1529 · Sao Caetano 1456

	EC Sao Bernardo	Draw	Sao Caetano
Our model	52%	26%	22%
Market	51%	28%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours EC Sao Bernardo (rating 1529 vs 1456).
H2H favours EC Sao Bernardo: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	EC Sao Bernardo	Sao Caetano
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5	1.8 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.20

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:22 +5’	1.75	3.20	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · EC Sao Bernardo 3–1–2 Sao Caetano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Brazil Paulista Cup	Sao Caetano	1-4 HT 0-2	EC Sao Bernardo
20/07/24 Brazil Paulista Cup	Sao Caetano	1-1 HT 1-1	EC Sao Bernardo
15/06/24 Brazil Paulista Cup	EC Sao Bernardo	1-2 HT 1-1	Sao Caetano
28/02/24 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	EC Sao Bernardo	1-0 HT 0-0	Sao Caetano
04/08/23 Brazil Paulista Cup	Sao Caetano	2-0 HT 1-0	EC Sao Bernardo
02/07/23 Brazil Paulista Cup	EC Sao Bernardo	1-0 HT 0-0	Sao Caetano

Standings · Brazil Paulista Cup · Copa Paulista 2026, Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Sao Bernardo	3	2	0	1	8	4	6
2	São José dos Campos FC	3	2	0	1	4	3	6
3	Santo Andre SP	3	1	1	1	2	3	4
4	Sao Caetano	3	0	1	2	2	6	1

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

EC Sao Bernardo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Sao Caetano Brazil Paulista Cup	2-0	4-1	2	6	W
26/07	São José dos Campos FC Brazil Paulista Cup	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
19/07	Santo Andre SP Brazil Paulista Cup	1-1	3-1	1	2	W
05/04	Marilia Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-0	0-2	5	6	L
28/03	Marilia Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-0	2-0	8	5	W
21/03	Uniao Sao Joao Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	1-1	2-2	10	8	D
15/03	Portuguesa Santista Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-1	0-3	9	3	L
12/03	Bandeirante Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-0	2-2	5	3	D
08/03	Itapirense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
04/03	Rio Branco SP Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	2-0	4-0	3	6	W

Sao Caetano

WLLDWLDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	EC Sao Bernardo Brazil Paulista Cup	0-2	1-4	1	6	L
26/07	Santo Andre SP Brazil Paulista Cup	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
20/07	Sao Jose SP Brazil Paulista Cup	1-2	1-2	3	2	L
02/05	CA Penapolense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	1-0	2-2	2	5	D
26/04	CA Penapolense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	1-2	1-2	5	7	L
18/04	Jacarei FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
11/04	Jacarei FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
04/04	Vocem Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
28/03	GD Saocarlense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	1-0	1-4	7	10	L
25/03	Colorado Caieiras FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	1-0	4-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in EC Sao Bernardo vs Sao Caetano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a EC Sao Bernardo win (52%). Probabilities: EC Sao Bernardo 52%, draw 27%, Sao Caetano 21%.

How many goals are expected in EC Sao Bernardo vs Sao Caetano?

The model expects 2.74 goals (EC Sao Bernardo 1.71 · Sao Caetano 1.03), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in EC Sao Bernardo vs Sao Caetano?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.