Prediction: Comercial FC vs Uniao Sao Joao
Team pages: Comercial FC · Uniao Sao Joao
See it on the live radar ↗- Uniao Sao Joao1-0Comercial FC
- Comercial FC0-1Uniao Sao Joao
- Comercial FC1-3Uniao Sao Joao
| Comercial FC | Draw | Uniao Sao Joao | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 32% | 31% |
| Market | 39% | 28% | 33% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Comercial FC (rating 1558 vs 1515).
- H2H favours Uniao Sao Joao: 3-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Comercial FC | Uniao Sao Joao | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.7 | 1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.4 | 2.2 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.8 / 0.3 | 4.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Comercial FC 0–0–3 Uniao Sao Joao
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/25 Brazil Paulista Cup | Uniao Sao Joao | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Comercial FC |
| 12/07/25 Brazil Paulista Cup | Comercial FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Uniao Sao Joao |
| 01/02/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 | Comercial FC | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Uniao Sao Joao |
Standings · Brazil Paulista Cup · Copa Paulista 2026, Group 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Comercial FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Uniao Sao Joao | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 3 | Noroeste | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 4 | XV Piracicaba | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Comercial FC | Uniao Sao Joao |
|---|---|---|
| XV Piracicaba | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Noroeste | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 0 L | 0 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Comercial FC (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Comercial FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Paulista Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Noroeste Brazil Paulista Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 04/04 | Tanabi Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 28/03 | Jabaquara SP Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 26/03 | Inter de Bebedouro Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 21/03 | Jacarei FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 19/03 | Vocem Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 14/03 | Aracatuba Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 07/03 | Nacional SP Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 11 | W |
| 04/03 | Sao Caetano Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
Uniao Sao Joao
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Noroeste Brazil Paulista Cup |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 23/07 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Paulista Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | Santos America Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 21/03 | EC Sao Bernardo Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 14/03 | Paulista FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 11/03 | AA Francana Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 07/03 | Catanduva FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 04/03 | Portuguesa Santista Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 01/03 | Itapirense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 25/02 | Desportivo Brasil Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Comercial FC vs Uniao Sao Joao?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Comercial FC win (38%). Probabilities: Comercial FC 38%, draw 30%, Uniao Sao Joao 32%.
How many goals are expected in Comercial FC vs Uniao Sao Joao?
The model expects 2.12 goals (Comercial FC 1.12 · Uniao Sao Joao 1), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Comercial FC vs Uniao Sao Joao?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.