Football · Denmark Superligaen · 14/08, 19:00
Prediction: Viborg vs AGF Aarhus
Team pages: Viborg · AGF Aarhus
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.25Total
Viborg1.67
AGF Aarhus1.58
1X2
Viborg
Draw
AGF Aarhus
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Viborg
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
AGF Aarhus
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Viborg
0–2–4
AGF Aarhus
(6 last)
- AGF Aarhus1-1Viborg
- AGF Aarhus6-2Viborg
- Viborg1-2AGF Aarhus
- AGF Aarhus5-2Viborg
- Viborg1-2AGF Aarhus
- AGF Aarhus1-1Viborg
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Viborg 1450 · AGF Aarhus 1590
| Viborg | Draw | AGF Aarhus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| Market | 39% | 26% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AGF Aarhus (rating 1450 vs 1590).
- H2H favours AGF Aarhus: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Viborg | AGF Aarhus | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.7 | 2.4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/90/10% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.5 | 2.6 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0 | 4.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Viborg 0–2–4 AGF Aarhus
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/26 Europe Friendlies | AGF Aarhus | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Viborg |
| 17/05/26 Denmark Superligaen | AGF Aarhus | 6-2 HT 3-1 | Viborg |
| 06/04/26 Denmark Superligaen | Viborg | 1-2 HT 1-2 | AGF Aarhus |
| 22/02/26 Denmark Superligaen | AGF Aarhus | 5-2 HT 1-0 | Viborg |
| 14/09/25 Denmark Superligaen | Viborg | 1-2 HT 1-2 | AGF Aarhus |
| 09/03/25 Denmark Superligaen | AGF Aarhus | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Viborg |
Standings · Denmark Superligaen
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Midtjylland | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Brondby | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Viborg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Odense BK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | AGF Aarhus | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 8 | Lyngby | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| 9 | AC Horsens | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 10 | Randers FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Silkeborg IF | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 11 | Sonderjyske | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Viborg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 02/08 | Brondby Denmark Superligaen |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 24/07 | Odense BK Denmark Superligaen |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 16/07 | FC Copenhagen Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | Notts County Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 03/07 | AaB Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 27/06 | AGF Aarhus Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 17/05 | AGF Aarhus Denmark Superligaen |
1-3 | 2-6 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 08/05 | Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 04/05 | Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen |
2-2 | 3-3 | 0 | 3 | D |
AGF Aarhus
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Sabah UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Lyngby Denmark Superligaen |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 29/07 | Lech Poznan UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 25/07 | Brondby Denmark Superligaen |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 21/07 | Lech Poznan UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 15/07 | AC Horsens Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 05/07 | Motherwell Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Viborg Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 1 | D |
| 17/05 | Viborg Denmark Superligaen |
3-1 | 6-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Brondby Denmark Superligaen |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Viborg vs AGF Aarhus?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Viborg win (39%). Probabilities: Viborg 39%, draw 26%, AGF Aarhus 35%.
How many goals are expected in Viborg vs AGF Aarhus?
The model expects 3.25 goals (Viborg 1.67 · AGF Aarhus 1.58), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Viborg vs AGF Aarhus?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.