Football · Croatia HNL · 08/08, 21:00
Prediction: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica
Team pages: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · HNK Gorica
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.62Total
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1.54
HNK Gorica1.08
1X2
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Draw
HNK Gorica
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
6-4-0 (W-D-L)
HNK Gorica
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
3–1–2
HNK Gorica
(6 last)
- HNK Gorica0-2NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb3-0HNK Gorica
- HNK Gorica4-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1-3HNK Gorica
- HNK Gorica0-3NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1-1HNK Gorica
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1568 · HNK Gorica 1474
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | Draw | HNK Gorica | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Market | 47% | 28% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (rating 1568 vs 1474).
- H2H favours NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNK Gorica | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.3 | 1.7 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–1–2 HNK Gorica
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/26 Croatia HNL | HNK Gorica | 0-2 HT 0-1 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb |
| 06/02/26 Croatia HNL | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 3-0 HT 2-0 | HNK Gorica |
| 03/11/25 Croatia HNL | HNK Gorica | 4-1 HT 3-1 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb |
| 16/08/25 Croatia HNL | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1-3 HT 1-0 | HNK Gorica |
| 24/05/25 Croatia HNL | HNK Gorica | 0-3 HT 0-1 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb |
| 28/03/25 Croatia HNL | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1-1 HT 1-1 | HNK Gorica |
Standings · Croatia HNL
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | NK Osijek | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | HNK Rijeka | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | NK Varazdin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 7 | Hajduk Split | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 7 | NK Rudes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 9 | HNK Gorica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 9 | Slaven Belupo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Istra 1961 Croatia HNL |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Sturm Graz II Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 17/07 | Karpaty Lviv Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 13/07 | Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 10/07 | Partizan Belgrade Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 04/07 | NK Bravo Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 01/07 | Vllaznia Shkoder Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | NK Varazdin Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 16/05 | Hajduk Split Croatia HNL |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
HNK Gorica
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | NK Osijek Croatia HNL |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 23/07 | Shakhtar Donetsk Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 19/07 | St Pauli Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 16/07 | Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 13/07 | Goztepe Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 09/07 | NK Brezice Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | FC Zorya Lugansk Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | NK Osijek Croatia HNL |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica?
According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win (47%). Probabilities: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 47%, draw 28%, HNK Gorica 25%.
How many goals are expected in NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica?
The model expects 2.62 goals (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.54 · HNK Gorica 1.08), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.