Football · Croatia HNL · 15/08, 18:30

Prediction: Istra 1961 vs Slaven Belupo

Team pages: Istra 1961 · Slaven Belupo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Istra 19611.84

Slaven Belupo1.05

1X2

55% 25% 20%

Istra 1961 Draw Slaven Belupo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Istra 1961 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDLWWDLD

Slaven Belupo 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLDWLL

Head-to-head

Istra 1961 1–3–2 Slaven Belupo (6 last)

Istra 19613-1Slaven Belupo
Slaven Belupo1-0Istra 1961
Istra 19611-1Slaven Belupo
Slaven Belupo2-1Istra 1961
Istra 19611-1Slaven Belupo
Slaven Belupo0-0Istra 1961

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Istra 1961 (rating 1504 vs 1441).
H2H favours Slaven Belupo: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Istra 1961	Slaven Belupo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	1.6 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.3	2.3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	1.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.83

Diff.: 1 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:56

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.06 → 2.08▲	Pinn 2.08
X	3.33 → 3.37▲	Pinn 3.37
2	3.42 → 3.46▲	Pinn 3.46

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:53 +1’	2.06	3.33	3.42
22:56	2.08▲	3.37▲	3.46▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Istra 1961 1–3–2 Slaven Belupo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/26 Croatia HNL	Istra 1961	3-1 HT 2-1	Slaven Belupo
27/02/26 Croatia HNL	Slaven Belupo	1-0 HT 0-0	Istra 1961
29/11/25 Croatia HNL	Istra 1961	1-1 HT 0-1	Slaven Belupo
12/09/25 Croatia HNL	Slaven Belupo	2-1 HT 1-1	Istra 1961
28/04/25 Croatia HNL	Istra 1961	1-1 HT 1-1	Slaven Belupo
23/02/25 Croatia HNL	Slaven Belupo	0-0 HT 0-0	Istra 1961

Standings · Croatia HNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Osijek	2	2	0	0	8	1	6
2	NK Varazdin	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
3	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
4	Dinamo Zagreb	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
5	HNK Rijeka	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
6	Istra 1961	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
7	Hajduk Split	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
8	HNK Gorica	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
9	Slaven Belupo	2	0	0	2	1	6	0
10	NK Rudes	2	0	0	2	2	8	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Istra 1961	Slaven Belupo
NK Varazdin	0-2 L	1-4 L
NK Osijek	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Istra 1961 (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Istra 1961

LWWDLWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
01/08	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-2	2-3	7	4	L
25/07	Lecce Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-2	2	0	D
21/07	Orijent Europe Friendlies	2-1	5-2	9	0	W
17/07	Milton Keynes Dons Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-1	5	1	W
23/05	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
17/05	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
10/05	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
04/05	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	2-1	3-1	6	0	W
27/04	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	0-1	0-1	5	6	L

Slaven Belupo

LLWLLLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-3	1-4	5	2	L
31/07	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
25/07	NK Sesvete Europe Friendlies	3-0	4-0	7	2	W
21/07	Shakhtar Donetsk Europe Friendlies	0-0	2-2	1	1	D
16/07	Paksi Europe Friendlies	1-3	3-5	6	3	L
14/07	Sanfrecce Hiroshima World Club Friendlies	1-2	1-3	1	0	L
10/07	Debreceni VSC Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	13	3	L
08/07	FK Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc Europe Friendlies	1-1	3-1	9	4	W
04/07	Zalaegerszegi TE Europe Friendlies	0-1	2-3	3	1	L
22/05	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-0	0-2	2	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Istra 1961 vs Slaven Belupo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Istra 1961 win (55%). Probabilities: Istra 1961 55%, draw 25%, Slaven Belupo 20%.

How many goals are expected in Istra 1961 vs Slaven Belupo?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Istra 1961 1.84 · Slaven Belupo 1.05), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Istra 1961 vs Slaven Belupo?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.