Football · Croatia HNL · 16/08, 21:00
Prediction: HNK Gorica vs Hajduk Split
Team pages: HNK Gorica · Hajduk Split
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.49Total
HNK Gorica0.95
Hajduk Split1.54
1X2
HNK Gorica
Draw
Hajduk Split
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
HNK Gorica
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Hajduk Split
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
HNK Gorica
1–1–4
Hajduk Split
(6 last)
- Hajduk Split1-0HNK Gorica
- HNK Gorica1-0Hajduk Split
- HNK Gorica1-3Hajduk Split
- Hajduk Split2-0HNK Gorica
- HNK Gorica1-1Hajduk Split
- Hajduk Split2-1HNK Gorica
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · HNK Gorica 1462 · Hajduk Split 1560
| HNK Gorica | Draw | Hajduk Split | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 28% | 50% |
| Market | 23% | 26% | 51% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hajduk Split (rating 1462 vs 1560).
- H2H favours Hajduk Split: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| HNK Gorica | Hajduk Split | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.5 | 1.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.7 | 3.4 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 3.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · HNK Gorica 1–1–4 Hajduk Split
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Croatia HNL | Hajduk Split | 1-0 HT 1-0 | HNK Gorica |
| 31/01/26 Croatia HNL | HNK Gorica | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Hajduk Split |
| 24/10/25 Croatia HNL | HNK Gorica | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Hajduk Split |
| 10/08/25 Croatia HNL | Hajduk Split | 2-0 HT 0-0 | HNK Gorica |
| 11/05/25 Croatia HNL | HNK Gorica | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Hajduk Split |
| 09/03/25 Croatia HNL | Hajduk Split | 2-1 HT 1-0 | HNK Gorica |
Standings · Croatia HNL
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NK Osijek | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | NK Varazdin | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| 7 | Hajduk Split | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 8 | HNK Gorica | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 9 | Slaven Belupo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| 10 | NK Rudes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
HNK Gorica
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 01/08 | NK Osijek Croatia HNL |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 23/07 | Shakhtar Donetsk Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 19/07 | St Pauli Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 16/07 | Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 13/07 | Goztepe Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 09/07 | NK Brezice Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | FC Zorya Lugansk Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | NK Osijek Croatia HNL |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Hajduk Split
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Istra 1961 Croatia HNL |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 06/08 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
2-1 | 5-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | NK Varazdin Croatia HNL |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 30/07 | Pafos FC UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 23/07 | Pafos FC UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 16/07 | MSK Zilina UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 09/07 | MSK Zilina UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/07 | NK Celje Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | LNZ Lebedyn Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 23/06 | Shkendija Tetovo Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in HNK Gorica vs Hajduk Split?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Hajduk Split win (50%). Probabilities: HNK Gorica 22%, draw 27%, Hajduk Split 50%.
How many goals are expected in HNK Gorica vs Hajduk Split?
The model expects 2.49 goals (HNK Gorica 0.95 · Hajduk Split 1.54), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in HNK Gorica vs Hajduk Split?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.