Football · Croatia HNL · 09/08, 21:00
Prediction: Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961
Team pages: Hajduk Split · Istra 1961
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.24Total
Hajduk Split2.29
Istra 19610.95
1X2
Hajduk Split
Draw
Istra 1961
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Hajduk Split
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Istra 1961
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hajduk Split
3–1–2
Istra 1961
(6 last)
- Istra 19611-3Hajduk Split
- Hajduk Split1-2Istra 1961
- Istra 19610-3Hajduk Split
- Hajduk Split2-1Istra 1961
- Hajduk Split0-1Istra 1961
- Istra 19611-1Hajduk Split
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hajduk Split 1580 · Istra 1961 1487
| Hajduk Split | Draw | Istra 1961 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 20% | 13% |
| Market | 66% | 21% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hajduk Split (rating 1580 vs 1487).
- H2H favours Hajduk Split: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hajduk Split | Istra 1961 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.1 | 1.5 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 5.8 | 1.9 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 2.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hajduk Split 3–1–2 Istra 1961
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/26 Croatia HNL | Istra 1961 | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Hajduk Split |
| 25/01/26 Croatia HNL | Hajduk Split | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Istra 1961 |
| 19/10/25 Croatia HNL | Istra 1961 | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Hajduk Split |
| 03/08/25 Croatia HNL | Hajduk Split | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Istra 1961 |
| 23/04/25 Croatia HNL | Hajduk Split | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Istra 1961 |
| 15/02/25 Croatia HNL | Istra 1961 | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Hajduk Split |
Standings · Croatia HNL
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | NK Osijek | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | HNK Rijeka | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | NK Varazdin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 7 | Hajduk Split | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 7 | NK Rudes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 9 | HNK Gorica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 9 | Slaven Belupo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hajduk Split
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
2-1 | 5-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | NK Varazdin Croatia HNL |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 30/07 | Pafos FC UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 23/07 | Pafos FC UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 16/07 | MSK Zilina UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 09/07 | MSK Zilina UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/07 | NK Celje Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | LNZ Lebedyn Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 23/06 | Shkendija Tetovo Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 22/05 | Vukovar 91 Croatia HNL |
3-2 | 6-3 | 8 | 2 | W |
Istra 1961
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 25/07 | Lecce Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 21/07 | Orijent Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 5-2 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 17/07 | Milton Keynes Dons Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | NK Varazdin Croatia HNL |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 17/05 | HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 10/05 | NK Osijek Croatia HNL |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 04/05 | Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 27/04 | HNK Gorica Croatia HNL |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 22/04 | Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hajduk Split win (66%). Probabilities: Hajduk Split 66%, draw 21%, Istra 1961 13%.
How many goals are expected in Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961?
The model expects 3.24 goals (Hajduk Split 2.29 · Istra 1961 0.95), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.