Football · Finland Kolmonen · 11/09, 18:00

Prediction: JPS vs FC Metso

Team pages: JPS · FC Metso

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.43Total

JPS2.96

FC Metso1.47

1X2

67% 17% 16%

JPS Draw FC Metso

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

JPS 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWDDWWWDWW

FC Metso 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWLWWWLL

Head-to-head

JPS 2–0 FC Metso (2 last)

FC Metso0-4JPS
JPS5-0FC Metso

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JPS 1610 · FC Metso 1504

	JPS	Draw	FC Metso
Our model	67%	17%	16%
Market	67%	16%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 4.43 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JPS (rating 1610 vs 1504).
H2H favours JPS: 2-0-0.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JPS	FC Metso
Goals for / against (FT)	3.7 / 0.8	2.9 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.6	1.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/57/0%	43/14/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 7.7	1.6 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0.3	2.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.50

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.90

2 (+1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.95

Under 4.251.85

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 5.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
05:43 +10’	1.33	5.50	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JPS 2–0–0 FC Metso

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/09/26 Finland Kolmonen	FC Metso	0-4 HT 0-2	JPS
22/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	JPS	5-0	FC Metso

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Eastern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JPS	17	12	5	0	60	13	41
2	FC Metso	17	9	3	5	47	37	30
3	KeuPa	17	8	6	3	39	33	30
4	FCJ Blackbird	17	8	5	4	46	31	29
5	FC Vaajakoski II	19	5	2	12	32	65	17
6	JJK/2	15	5	1	9	25	47	16
7	Savon Pallo	17	4	3	10	33	41	15
8	Komeetat	17	3	3	11	22	37	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JPS	FC Metso
Komeetat	6-3 W	4-2 W
KeuPa	1-1 D	3-4 L
Savon Pallo	2-1 W	2-8 L
JJK/2	8-0 W	4-0 W
FC Vaajakoski II	8-0 W	7-3 W
FCJ Blackbird	1-1 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: JPS (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JPS

WWDDWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	FC Metso Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	5	3	W
04/09	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	–	6-3	–	–	W
28/08	KeuPa Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	10	2	D
21/08	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
12/08	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	3-0	8-0	8	0	W
05/08	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	–	8-0	–	–	W
29/07	FCJ Blackbird Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
17/07	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	12	4	D
24/06	KeuPa Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	8	0	W
17/06	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W

FC Metso

DWLWLWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	JPS Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	1	3	L
04/09	KeuPa Finland Kolmonen	–	3-4	–	–	L
26/08	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	6	2	W
19/08	FCJ Blackbird Finland Kolmonen	4-0	4-1	4	6	W
14/08	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	4-0	4-2	4	5	W
07/08	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	–	2-8	–	–	L
31/07	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	0-2	7-3	2	0	W
19/07	KeuPa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
24/06	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-2	6	3	W
16/06	FCJ Blackbird Finland Kolmonen	–	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JPS vs FC Metso?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JPS win (67%). Probabilities: JPS 67%, draw 17%, FC Metso 16%.

How many goals are expected in JPS vs FC Metso?

The model expects 4.43 goals (JPS 2.96 · FC Metso 1.47), with a 50% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in JPS vs FC Metso?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.