Prediction: KFG Gardabaer vs UMF Selfoss
Expected goals: 4.01 (KFG Gardabaer 1.37 · UMF Selfoss 2.63). The model gives 18% home, 18% draw, 64% away. Under 4 goals (53%) and both teams to score (60%). Most likely score: 1-2.
Over its last 10 matches, KFG Gardabaer sits at 5-0-5 (W-D-L), while UMF Selfoss arrives on a 4-4-2 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 0 wins for KFG Gardabaer and 5 for UMF Selfoss, with 1 draw.
| KFG Gardabaer | Draw | UMF Selfoss | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 19% | 64% |
| Market | 18% | 18% | 64% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UMF Selfoss (rating 1467 vs 1530).
- H2H favours UMF Selfoss: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| KFG Gardabaer | UMF Selfoss | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2.9 | 2.1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.9 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.4 | 3.6 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.6 | 5.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · KFG Gardabaer 0–1–5 UMF Selfoss
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Iceland League Cup B | KFG Gardabaer | 0-2 HT 0-1 | UMF Selfoss |
| 08/09/24 Iceland 2 Deild | KFG Gardabaer | 1-3 HT 0-1 | UMF Selfoss |
| 17/07/24 Iceland Lower League Cup | UMF Selfoss | 3-1 HT 2-0 | KFG Gardabaer |
| 08/07/24 Iceland 2 Deild | UMF Selfoss | 2-2 HT 0-1 | KFG Gardabaer |
| 21/08/19 Iceland 2 Deild | KFG Gardabaer | 1-3 HT 0-1 | UMF Selfoss |
| 10/06/19 Iceland 2 Deild | UMF Selfoss | 2-0 HT 1-0 | KFG Gardabaer |
Standings · Iceland 2 Deild
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haukar | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 14 | 23 |
| 2 | Dalvik/Reynir | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 19 |
| 3 | Kari | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 29 | 20 | 17 |
| 4 | UMF Selfoss | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 20 | 16 |
| 5 | Kormakur/Hvot | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 13 | 15 |
| 6 | Fjolnir | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 14 |
| 7 | Vikingur Olafsvik | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 14 |
| 8 | KFG Gardabaer | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 29 | 12 |
| 9 | Hviti Riddarinn | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 16 | 11 |
| 10 | Fjardabyggd | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 22 | 10 |
| 11 | Throttur Vogar | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 19 | 10 |
| 12 | Magni Grenivik | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 30 | 8 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | KFG Gardabaer | UMF Selfoss |
|---|---|---|
| Vikingur Olafsvik | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Dalvik/Reynir | 0-6 L | 2-2 D |
| Kormakur/Hvot | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Hviti Riddarinn | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Fjardabyggd | 1-5 L | 2-4 L |
| Fjolnir | 4-3 W | 3-2 W |
| Haukar | 0-4 L | 2-2 D |
| Throttur Vogar | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Kari | 1-5 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 5 L | 4 W 4 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: UMF Selfoss (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
KFG Gardabaer
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 20/06 | Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild |
0-5 | 0-6 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild |
2-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 10/06 | Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild |
1-3 | 1-5 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 01/06 | Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild |
1-2 | 4-3 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 21/05 | Haukar Iceland 2 Deild |
0-2 | 0-4 | 6 | 10 | L |
| 09/05 | Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Kari Iceland 2 Deild |
0-4 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 09/04 | Reynir Sandgerdi Iceland League Cup B |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
UMF Selfoss
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Haukar Iceland 2 Deild |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild |
0-0 | 1-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 15/06 | Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 10/06 | Kari Iceland 2 Deild |
0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 06/06 | Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild |
1-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 09/05 | Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 02/05 | Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild |
1-4 | 2-4 | 4 | 10 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in KFG Gardabaer vs UMF Selfoss?
According to our model, the most likely result is an UMF Selfoss win (64%). Probabilities: KFG Gardabaer 18%, draw 18%, UMF Selfoss 64%.
How many goals are expected in KFG Gardabaer vs UMF Selfoss?
The model expects 4.01 goals (KFG Gardabaer 1.37 · UMF Selfoss 2.63), with a 53% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in KFG Gardabaer vs UMF Selfoss?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.