Football · Finland Kolmonen · 10/09, 17:00

Prediction: TP-T vs NoPS

Team pages: TP-T · NoPS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.25Total

TP-T1.79

NoPS2.46

1X2

28% 20% 52%

TP-T Draw NoPS

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

TP-T 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLWLWWWL

NoPS 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

TP-T 2–2–2 NoPS (6 last)

NoPS2-2TP-T
TP-T3-4NoPS
NoPS1-2TP-T
NoPS0-0TP-T
TP-T2-1NoPS
TP-T1-2NoPS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TP-T 1529 · NoPS 1594

	TP-T	Draw	NoPS
Our model	28%	20%	52%
Market	28%	20%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 4.25 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NoPS (rating 1529 vs 1594).
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TP-T	NoPS
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 1.4	3.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.4	2.4 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.20

X4.50

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.88

2 (-0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 41.98

Under 41.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 4.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:13 +26’	3.20	4.50	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · TP-T 2–2–2 NoPS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	NoPS	2-2	TP-T
20/09/25 Finland Kolmonen	TP-T	3-4	NoPS
12/06/25 Finland Kolmonen	NoPS	1-2 HT 1-0	TP-T
21/09/24 Finland Kolmonen	NoPS	0-0 HT 0-0	TP-T
13/06/24 Finland Kolmonen	TP-T	2-1 HT 2-0	NoPS
27/06/23 Finland Kolmonen	TP-T	1-2 HT 1-1	NoPS

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Lasten	18	17	1	0	72	15	52
2	TPV II	18	14	1	3	45	22	43
3	Tampere Utd II	18	13	3	2	54	15	42
4	NoPS	18	13	2	3	59	20	41
5	TP-T	17	7	2	8	43	32	23
6	FC LeKi	17	7	2	8	39	34	23
7	Ylojarvi United	18	7	2	9	37	41	23
8	Saaksjærven Loiske	18	6	2	10	24	42	20
9	FC Haka Juniors	18	6	1	11	34	53	19
10	Fish United	18	3	2	13	20	58	11
11	ACE	18	3	1	14	30	54	10
12	TP-49	18	1	1	16	19	90	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TP-T	NoPS
Saaksjærven Loiske	1-2 L	2-0 W
FC LeKi	2-0 W	3-2 W
FC Haka Juniors	7-0 W	7-0 W
TP-49	11-2 W	4-1 W
FC Lasten	0-3 L	0-1 L
Fish United	4-1 W	8-0 W
TPV II	0-3 L	1-5 L
ACE	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 3 L	6 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NoPS (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TP-T

LWWLWLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
27/08	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
18/08	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	3-0	7-0	9	1	W
13/08	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	5-0	11-2	10	0	W
06/08	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-3	3	3	L
30/07	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	1-1	4-1	7	4	W
22/07	TPV II Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	4	7	L
17/07	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	–	2-0	–	–	W
03/07	ACE Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-1	6	1	W
27/06	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	1	3	L

NoPS

WLLWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-2	7	1	W
29/08	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	–	4-1	–	–	W
20/08	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	3-0	8-0	7	3	W
14/08	ACE Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	6	0	W
07/08	Ylojarvi United Finland Kolmonen	–	4-1	–	–	W
31/07	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
24/07	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	3-0	7-0	4	3	W
04/07	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
24/06	TPV II Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-5	6	4	L
16/06	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-0	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TP-T vs NoPS?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NoPS win (52%). Probabilities: TP-T 28%, draw 20%, NoPS 52%.

How many goals are expected in TP-T vs NoPS?

The model expects 4.25 goals (TP-T 1.79 · NoPS 2.46), with a 50% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in TP-T vs NoPS?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.