Football · South Korea Women K League · 29/08, 12:00

Prediction: Mungyeong Sangmu Women vs Sejong Sportstoto (W)

Team pages: Mungyeong Sangmu Women · Sejong Sportstoto (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

Mungyeong Sangmu Women1.04

Sejong Sportstoto (W)1.03

1X2

35% 30% 35%

Mungyeong Sangmu Women Draw Sejong Sportstoto (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Mungyeong Sangmu Women 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LDWWLLLWLW

Sejong Sportstoto (W) 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLDWLWDW

Head-to-head

Mungyeong Sangmu Women 3–3 Sejong Sportstoto (W) (6 last)

Sejong Sportstoto (W)0-1Mungyeong Sangmu Women
Mungyeong Sangmu Women1-2Sejong Sportstoto (W)
Sejong Sportstoto (W)0-1Mungyeong Sangmu Women
Mungyeong Sangmu Women0-1Sejong Sportstoto (W)
Sejong Sportstoto (W)1-4Mungyeong Sangmu Women
Mungyeong Sangmu Women1-2Sejong Sportstoto (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mungyeong Sangmu Women 1482 · Sejong Sportstoto (W) 1521

	Mungyeong Sangmu Women	Draw	Sejong Sportstoto (W)
Our model	34%	33%	33%
Market	36%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mungyeong Sangmu Women	Sejong Sportstoto (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	0.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.9	1.7 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.20

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.45▲	Pinn 2.57 ★
X	3.25 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.25
2	2.80 → 2.50▼	Pinn 2.54

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:15 +10’	2.20	3.25	2.80
18:17 +9’	2.45▲	3.20▼	2.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:16 +3’	2.57	3.25	2.54

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mungyeong Sangmu Women 3–0–3 Sejong Sportstoto (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/07/26 South Korea Women K League	Sejong Sportstoto (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Mungyeong Sangmu Women
16/05/26 South Korea Women K League	Mungyeong Sangmu Women	1-2 HT 1-2	Sejong Sportstoto (W)
04/04/26 South Korea Women K League	Sejong Sportstoto (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Mungyeong Sangmu Women
22/09/25 South Korea Women K League	Mungyeong Sangmu Women	0-1 HT 0-1	Sejong Sportstoto (W)
19/05/25 South Korea Women K League	Sejong Sportstoto (W)	1-4 HT 0-2	Mungyeong Sangmu Women
14/04/25 South Korea Women K League	Mungyeong Sangmu Women	1-2 HT 0-1	Sejong Sportstoto (W)

Standings · South Korea Women K League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Suwon FC (W)	22	17	2	3	56	17	53
2	Hwacheon KSPO (W)	20	12	5	3	28	9	41
3	Gyeongju (W)	22	8	6	8	33	28	30
4	Mungyeong Sangmu Women	21	9	2	10	23	29	29
5	Sejong Sportstoto (W)	21	8	4	9	23	28	28
6	Incheon Red Angels (W)	22	6	5	11	20	31	23
7	Seoul Amazones (W)	21	7	2	12	19	33	23
8	Gangjin Swans (W)	21	3	4	14	19	46	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mungyeong Sangmu Women	Sejong Sportstoto (W)
Incheon Red Angels (W)	2-1 W	1-0 W
Suwon FC (W)	1-3 L	1-4 L
Seoul Amazones (W)	2-1 W	3-0 W
Gyeongju (W)	2-3 L	0-0 D
Hwacheon KSPO (W)	0-2 L	0-0 D
Gangjin Swans (W)	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sejong Sportstoto (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mungyeong Sangmu Women

LDWWLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Incheon Red Angels (W) South Korea Women K League	1-0	2-1	3	1	W
14/08	Suwon FC (W) South Korea Women K League	0-1	1-3	4	2	L
08/08	Seoul Amazones (W) South Korea Women K League	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
01/08	Gyeongju (W) South Korea Women K League	0-2	2-3	–	–	L
24/07	Hwacheon KSPO (W) South Korea Women K League	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
18/07	Gangjin Swans (W) South Korea Women K League	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
10/07	Sejong Sportstoto (W) South Korea Women K League	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
01/07	Gangjin Swans (W) South Korea Women K League	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
27/06	Incheon Red Angels (W) South Korea Women K League	0-0	1-1	2	0	D
20/06	Suwon FC (W) South Korea Women K League	0-1	0-2	2	4	L

Sejong Sportstoto (W)

DLDLDWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Gangjin Swans (W) South Korea Women K League	2-0	2-0	2	1	W
15/08	Hwacheon KSPO (W) South Korea Women K League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
07/08	Incheon Red Angels (W) South Korea Women K League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
31/07	Suwon FC (W) South Korea Women K League	0-2	1-4	2	3	L
24/07	Seoul Amazones (W) South Korea Women K League	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
18/07	Gyeongju (W) South Korea Women K League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
10/07	Mungyeong Sangmu Women South Korea Women K League	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
27/06	Gangjin Swans (W) South Korea Women K League	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
20/06	Hwacheon KSPO (W) South Korea Women K League	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
17/06	Incheon Red Angels (W) South Korea Women K League	0-0	0-0	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mungyeong Sangmu Women vs Sejong Sportstoto (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mungyeong Sangmu Women win (35%). Probabilities: Mungyeong Sangmu Women 35%, draw 30%, Sejong Sportstoto (W) 35%.

How many goals are expected in Mungyeong Sangmu Women vs Sejong Sportstoto (W)?

The model expects 2.07 goals (Mungyeong Sangmu Women 1.04 · Sejong Sportstoto (W) 1.03), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mungyeong Sangmu Women vs Sejong Sportstoto (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.