Football · South Korea Women K League · 28/08, 12:00

Prediction: Incheon Red Angels (W) vs Gyeongju (W)

Team pages: Incheon Red Angels (W) · Gyeongju (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Incheon Red Angels (W)1.06

Gyeongju (W)1.55

1X2

26% 26% 48%

Incheon Red Angels (W) Draw Gyeongju (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Incheon Red Angels (W) 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DWDLLLLLDL

Gyeongju (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWWDDL

Head-to-head

Incheon Red Angels (W) 4–2 Gyeongju (W) (6 last)

Gyeongju (W)2-1Incheon Red Angels (W)
Incheon Red Angels (W)1-0Gyeongju (W)
Gyeongju (W)0-2Incheon Red Angels (W)
Gyeongju (W)0-1Incheon Red Angels (W)
Incheon Red Angels (W)3-0Gyeongju (W)
Gyeongju (W)1-0Incheon Red Angels (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Incheon Red Angels (W) 1452 · Gyeongju (W) 1508

	Incheon Red Angels (W)	Draw	Gyeongju (W)
Our model	25%	28%	47%
Market	26%	25%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gyeongju (W) (rating 1452 vs 1508).
H2H favours Incheon Red Angels (W): 4-0-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Incheon Red Angels (W)	Gyeongju (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.7	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.1	2 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1 / 0	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.60

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 10:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
X	3.30 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	2.38 → 1.83▼	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:00 +4’	2.55	3.30	2.38
14:09 +11’	2.80▲	3.30	2.15▼
00:21 +6’	2.80	3.40▲	2.15
07:43 +4’	3.25▲	3.70▲	1.85▼
08:59 +5’	3.30▲	3.75▲	1.83▼
10:24 +9’	3.40▲	3.60▼	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Incheon Red Angels (W) 4–0–2 Gyeongju (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 South Korea Women K League	Gyeongju (W)	2-1 HT 0-0	Incheon Red Angels (W)
15/05/26 South Korea Women K League	Incheon Red Angels (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Gyeongju (W)
04/04/26 South Korea Women K League	Gyeongju (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Incheon Red Angels (W)
29/09/25 South Korea Women K League	Gyeongju (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Incheon Red Angels (W)
21/08/25 South Korea Women K League	Incheon Red Angels (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	Gyeongju (W)
14/08/25 South Korea Women K League	Gyeongju (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Incheon Red Angels (W)

Standings · South Korea Women K League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Suwon FC (W)	22	17	2	3	56	17	53
2	Hwacheon KSPO (W)	20	12	5	3	28	9	41
3	Gyeongju (W)	22	8	6	8	33	28	30
4	Mungyeong Sangmu Women	21	9	2	10	23	29	29
5	Sejong Sportstoto (W)	21	8	4	9	23	28	28
6	Incheon Red Angels (W)	22	6	5	11	20	31	23
7	Seoul Amazones (W)	21	7	2	12	19	33	23
8	Gangjin Swans (W)	21	3	4	14	19	46	13

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Incheon Red Angels (W)	Gyeongju (W)
Mungyeong Sangmu Women	1-2 L	3-2 W
Gangjin Swans (W)	1-1 D	6-1 W
Sejong Sportstoto (W)	0-1 L	0-0 D
Hwacheon KSPO (W)	0-2 L	1-1 D
Seoul Amazones (W)	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Gyeongju (W) (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Incheon Red Angels (W)

DWDLLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Mungyeong Sangmu Women South Korea Women K League	0-1	1-2	10	1	L
15/08	Gangjin Swans (W) South Korea Women K League	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
07/08	Sejong Sportstoto (W) South Korea Women K League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
31/07	Hwacheon KSPO (W) South Korea Women K League	0-1	0-2	1	1	L
24/07	Suwon FMC (W) South Korea Women K League	0-2	0-4	0	0	L
18/07	Seoul Amazones (W) South Korea Women K League	0-1	0-2	0	0	L
11/07	Gyeongju (W) South Korea Women K League	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
27/06	Mungyeong Sangmu Women South Korea Women K League	0-0	1-1	9	0	D
20/06	Gangjin Swans (W) South Korea Women K League	3-0	3-2	4	2	W
17/06	Sejong Sportstoto (W) South Korea Women K League	0-0	0-0	5	3	D

Gyeongju (W)

LWWWDWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Suwon FC (W) South Korea Women K League	0-1	2-3	–	–	L
14/08	Seoul Amazones (W) South Korea Women K League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
07/08	Hwacheon KSPO (W) South Korea Women K League	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
01/08	Mungyeong Sangmu Women South Korea Women K League	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
24/07	Gangjin Swans (W) South Korea Women K League	3-0	6-1	3	0	W
18/07	Sejong Sportstoto (W) South Korea Women K League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
11/07	Incheon Red Angels (W) South Korea Women K League	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
26/06	Suwon FC (W) South Korea Women K League	2-1	2-1	0	5	W
20/06	Seoul Amazones (W) South Korea Women K League	2-0	3-1	7	2	W
17/06	Hwacheon KSPO (W) South Korea Women K League	0-0	0-1	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Incheon Red Angels (W) vs Gyeongju (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gyeongju (W) win (48%). Probabilities: Incheon Red Angels (W) 26%, draw 26%, Gyeongju (W) 48%.

How many goals are expected in Incheon Red Angels (W) vs Gyeongju (W)?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Incheon Red Angels (W) 1.06 · Gyeongju (W) 1.55), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Incheon Red Angels (W) vs Gyeongju (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.