Football · South Korea Women K League · 28/10, 11:00

Prediction: Suwon FC (W) vs Mungyeong Sangmu Women

Team pages: Suwon FC (W) · Mungyeong Sangmu Women

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Suwon FC (W)2.09

Mungyeong Sangmu Women0.89

1X2

64% 21% 14%

Suwon FC (W) Draw Mungyeong Sangmu Women

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Suwon FC (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Mungyeong Sangmu Women 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Suwon FC (W) 4–1–1 Mungyeong Sangmu Women (6 last)

Suwon FC (W)3-1Mungyeong Sangmu Women
Mungyeong Sangmu Women0-2Suwon FC (W)
Mungyeong Sangmu Women1-3Suwon FC (W)
Suwon FC (W)2-1Mungyeong Sangmu Women
Mungyeong Sangmu Women0-0Suwon FC (W)
Suwon FC (W)0-1Mungyeong Sangmu Women

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Suwon FC (W) 1569 · Mungyeong Sangmu Women 1479

	Suwon FC (W)	Draw	Mungyeong Sangmu Women
Our model	64%	22%	14%
Market	65%	21%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Suwon FC (W) (rating 1569 vs 1479).
H2H favours Suwon FC (W): 4-1-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Suwon FC (W)	Mungyeong Sangmu Women
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.9	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.6	1.6 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0	1.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.33

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.40▼	Bet365 1.40
X	4.00 → 4.33▲	Pinn 5.05 ★
2	4.75 → 6.25▲	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:14 +54’	1.53	4.00	4.75
17:53 +18’	1.40▼	4.33▲	6.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:50 +18’	1.38	5.05	5.84

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Suwon FC (W) 4–1–1 Mungyeong Sangmu Women

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/08/26 South Korea Women K League	Suwon FC (W)	3-1 HT 1-0	Mungyeong Sangmu Women
20/06/26 South Korea Women K League	Mungyeong Sangmu Women	0-2 HT 0-1	Suwon FC (W)
05/05/26 South Korea Women K League	Mungyeong Sangmu Women	1-3 HT 1-1	Suwon FC (W)
08/09/25 South Korea Women K League	Suwon FC (W)	2-1 HT 0-1	Mungyeong Sangmu Women
12/06/25 South Korea Women K League	Mungyeong Sangmu Women	0-0 HT 0-0	Suwon FC (W)
01/05/25 South Korea Women K League	Suwon FC (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Mungyeong Sangmu Women

Standings · South Korea Women K League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Suwon FC (W)	26	19	2	5	59	21	59
2	Hwacheon KSPO (W)	28	15	10	3	39	14	55
3	Seoul Amazones (W)	27	11	4	12	25	34	37
4	Mungyeong Sangmu Women	26	11	3	12	26	32	36
5	Gyeongju (W)	26	9	7	10	36	32	34
6	Sejong Sportstoto (W)	27	9	6	12	26	34	33
7	Incheon Red Angels (W)	26	6	6	14	21	38	24
8	Gangjin Swans (W)	26	4	6	16	23	50	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Suwon FC (W)	Mungyeong Sangmu Women
Gangjin Swans (W)	0-2 L	1-0 W
Sejong Sportstoto (W)	1-0 W	0-1 L
Incheon Red Angels (W)	2-0 W	2-1 W
Hwacheon KSPO (W)	0-2 L	1-1 D
Seoul Amazones (W)	2-1 W	0-1 L
Gyeongju (W)	3-2 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Suwon FC (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Suwon FC (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Gangjin Swans (W) South Korea Women K League	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
02/10	Sejong Sportstoto (W) South Korea Women K League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
05/09	Incheon Red Angels (W) South Korea Women K League	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
02/09	Hwacheon KSPO (W) South Korea Women K League	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
28/08	Seoul Amazones (W) South Korea Women K League	0-1	2-1	6	2	W
22/08	Gyeongju (W) South Korea Women K League	1-0	3-2	–	–	W
14/08	Mungyeong Sangmu Women South Korea Women K League	1-0	3-1	5	2	W
07/08	Gangjin Swans (W) South Korea Women K League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
31/07	Sejong Sportstoto (W) South Korea Women K League	2-0	4-1	1	3	W
24/07	Incheon Red Angels (W) South Korea Women K League	2-0	4-0	5	0	W

Mungyeong Sangmu Women

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Seoul Amazones (W) South Korea Women K League	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
03/10	Gyeongju (W) South Korea Women K League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
05/09	Hwacheon KSPO (W) South Korea Women K League	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
02/09	Gangjin Swans (W) South Korea Women K League	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
29/08	Sejong Sportstoto (W) South Korea Women K League	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
21/08	Incheon Red Angels (W) South Korea Women K League	1-0	2-1	3	1	W
14/08	Suwon FC (W) South Korea Women K League	0-1	1-3	4	2	L
08/08	Seoul Amazones (W) South Korea Women K League	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
01/08	Gyeongju (W) South Korea Women K League	0-2	2-3	–	–	L
24/07	Hwacheon KSPO (W) South Korea Women K League	0-2	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Suwon FC (W) vs Mungyeong Sangmu Women?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Suwon FC (W) win (64%). Probabilities: Suwon FC (W) 64%, draw 21%, Mungyeong Sangmu Women 14%.

How many goals are expected in Suwon FC (W) vs Mungyeong Sangmu Women?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Suwon FC (W) 2.09 · Mungyeong Sangmu Women 0.89), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Suwon FC (W) vs Mungyeong Sangmu Women?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.