Football · Argentina Nacional B · 10/10, 22:00

Prediction: CA Atlanta vs San Martin de Tucuman

Team pages: CA Atlanta · San Martin de Tucuman

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

CA Atlanta1.46

San Martin de Tucuman1.06

1X2

44% 31% 25%

CA Atlanta Draw San Martin de Tucuman

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Atlanta 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLWWDW

San Martin de Tucuman 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLDDWDLWLD

Head-to-head

CA Atlanta 3–1–2 San Martin de Tucuman (6 last)

San Martin de Tucuman0-1CA Atlanta
San Martin de Tucuman4-0CA Atlanta
CA Atlanta3-1San Martin de Tucuman
San Martin de Tucuman0-0CA Atlanta
San Martin de Tucuman3-0CA Atlanta
CA Atlanta2-1San Martin de Tucuman

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Atlanta 1541 · San Martin de Tucuman 1487

	CA Atlanta	Draw	San Martin de Tucuman
Our model	45%	29%	26%
Market	43%	33%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Atlanta (rating 1541 vs 1487).
H2H favours CA Atlanta: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Atlanta	San Martin de Tucuman
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3	2.5 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.4	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X2.80

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.90

Under 1.751.90

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:46 +1’	2.15	2.80	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Atlanta 3–1–2 San Martin de Tucuman

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Argentina Nacional B	San Martin de Tucuman	0-1 HT 0-0	CA Atlanta
15/09/25 Argentina Nacional B	San Martin de Tucuman	4-0 HT 3-0	CA Atlanta
11/05/25 Argentina Nacional B	CA Atlanta	3-1 HT 1-0	San Martin de Tucuman
23/07/22 Argentina Nacional B	San Martin de Tucuman	0-0 HT 0-0	CA Atlanta
18/08/21 Argentina Nacional B	San Martin de Tucuman	3-0 HT 2-0	CA Atlanta
04/04/21 Argentina Nacional B	CA Atlanta	2-1 HT 0-1	San Martin de Tucuman

Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	32	15	13	4	32	15	58
2	Club Atletico Temperley	32	15	11	6	38	26	56
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	15	9	8	48	40	54
4	CA Atlanta	31	16	4	11	35	28	52
5	Gimnasia y Tiro	31	13	9	9	32	27	48
6	Ferrocarril Midland	31	13	8	10	34	26	47
7	San Martin SJ	31	12	9	10	33	30	45
8	Deportivo Maipu	31	12	8	11	38	31	44
9	CA Colegiales	31	12	7	12	31	31	43
10	Atletico Rafaela	31	11	9	11	25	27	42
11	San Martin de Tucuman	31	9	13	9	34	32	40
12	Quilmes	32	10	9	13	30	27	39
13	Nueva Chicago	31	9	9	13	23	29	36
14	Agropecuario	31	9	9	13	26	35	36
15	Almagro	31	9	8	14	26	37	35
16	Patronato Parana	31	6	16	9	27	31	34
17	Chacarita Juniors	31	8	6	17	23	33	30
18	CA Guemes	31	5	8	18	23	53	23

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Atlanta	San Martin de Tucuman
Agropecuario	1-0 W	3-0 W
Tristan Suarez	0-0 D	0-2 L
CA Guemes	2-0 W	1-1 D
Chacarita Juniors	1-0 W	2-1 W
San Martin SJ	0-1 L	1-1 D
Nueva Chicago	1-0 W	1-2 L
Club Atletico Temperley	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CA Atlanta (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Atlanta

LWLWLLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-0	7	2	W
21/09	Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
12/09	CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
05/09	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
30/08	San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
26/08	Patronato Parana Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
22/08	Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
15/08	Ferro Carril Oeste Argentina Nacional B	0-1	1-3	3	0	L
09/08	Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	3	8	W
02/08	Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B	2-2	2-4	2	5	L

San Martin de Tucuman

LLDDWDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B	2-0	2-2	5	3	D
19/09	Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B	2-2	2-4	4	6	L
13/09	Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B	0-0	3-0	7	5	W
05/09	Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	0	2	L
30/08	CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
23/08	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
16/08	Deportivo Madryn Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-2	3	7	D
09/08	San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
01/08	Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B	1-1	1-2	8	9	L
26/07	Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B	0-1	1-2	8	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Atlanta vs San Martin de Tucuman?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Atlanta win (44%). Probabilities: CA Atlanta 44%, draw 31%, San Martin de Tucuman 25%.

How many goals are expected in CA Atlanta vs San Martin de Tucuman?

The model expects 2.52 goals (CA Atlanta 1.46 · San Martin de Tucuman 1.06), with a 58% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Atlanta vs San Martin de Tucuman?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.