Football · Argentina Nacional B · 17/10, 22:00

Prediction: Tristan Suarez vs Patronato Parana

Team pages: Tristan Suarez · Patronato Parana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.76Total

Tristan Suarez1.16

Patronato Parana0.6

1X2

49% 32% 19%

Tristan Suarez Draw Patronato Parana

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 54% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

1-0 19%

Recent form · 10 last

Tristan Suarez 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDDWDD

Patronato Parana 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLDDDWLW

Head-to-head

Tristan Suarez 1–1–3 Patronato Parana (5 last)

Patronato Parana1-1Tristan Suarez
Patronato Parana2-0Tristan Suarez
Tristan Suarez2-0Patronato Parana
Patronato Parana3-0Tristan Suarez
Tristan Suarez0-1Patronato Parana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tristan Suarez 1556 · Patronato Parana 1497

	Tristan Suarez	Draw	Patronato Parana
Our model	48%	34%	18%
Market	50%	31%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 1.76 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tristan Suarez (rating 1556 vs 1497).
H2H favours Patronato Parana: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tristan Suarez	Patronato Parana
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.3	1.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0	0.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.6	3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	4.8 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.00

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.98

Under 1.751.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:44 +32’	1.85	3.00	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tristan Suarez 1–1–3 Patronato Parana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Argentina Nacional B	Patronato Parana	1-1 HT 1-1	Tristan Suarez
06/07/25 Argentina Nacional B	Patronato Parana	2-0 HT 0-0	Tristan Suarez
02/03/25 Argentina Nacional B	Tristan Suarez	2-0 HT 1-0	Patronato Parana
07/07/24 Argentina Nacional B	Patronato Parana	3-0 HT 0-0	Tristan Suarez
17/02/24 Argentina Nacional B	Tristan Suarez	0-1 HT 0-0	Patronato Parana

Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	33	15	14	4	32	15	59
2	CA Atlanta	33	18	4	11	39	30	58
3	Club Atletico Temperley	32	15	11	6	38	26	56
4	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	15	9	8	48	40	54
5	Ferrocarril Midland	33	14	9	10	38	26	51
6	Gimnasia y Tiro	32	13	9	10	32	28	48
7	Deportivo Maipu	32	13	8	11	39	31	47
8	CA Colegiales	33	13	8	12	32	31	47
9	San Martin SJ	32	12	9	11	34	32	45
10	San Martin de Tucuman	33	10	13	10	35	33	43
11	Atletico Rafaela	33	11	9	13	27	34	42
12	Almagro	33	11	8	14	30	39	41
13	Agropecuario	33	10	10	13	27	35	40
14	Quilmes	33	10	9	14	30	28	39
15	Nueva Chicago	32	9	9	14	23	30	36
16	Patronato Parana	32	6	16	10	27	32	34
17	Chacarita Juniors	33	9	6	18	25	35	33
18	CA Guemes	32	5	8	19	23	54	23

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tristan Suarez	Patronato Parana
CA Atlanta	0-0 D	2-0 W
San Martin SJ	0-0 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Patronato Parana (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tristan Suarez

WWLWDDDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
03/10	Quilmes Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
27/09	Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
21/09	CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
16/09	San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
12/09	Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
05/09	San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
29/08	Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-2	2	8	L
22/08	Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B	0-0	2-0	9	4	W
16/08	Almirante Brown Argentina Nacional B	2-0	3-1	4	4	W

Patronato Parana

LDWLDDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B	0-0	2-0	13	7	W
04/10	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
27/09	San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B	2-0	3-0	0	6	W
22/09	Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
13/09	Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
06/09	Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
30/08	Almagro Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
26/08	CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
22/08	Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B	1-1	3-3	7	6	D
15/08	Colon Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-3	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tristan Suarez vs Patronato Parana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tristan Suarez win (49%). Probabilities: Tristan Suarez 49%, draw 32%, Patronato Parana 19%.

How many goals are expected in Tristan Suarez vs Patronato Parana?

The model expects 1.76 goals (Tristan Suarez 1.16 · Patronato Parana 0.6), with a 53% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tristan Suarez vs Patronato Parana?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.