Football · Argentina Nacional B · 17/10, 22:00

Prediction: Atletico Rafaela vs Quilmes

Team pages: Atletico Rafaela · Quilmes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.98Total

Atletico Rafaela0.99

Quilmes0.99

1X2

34% 33% 34%

Atletico Rafaela Draw Quilmes

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Rafaela 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDDWLLWLLL

Quilmes 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLLWLWDL

Head-to-head

Atletico Rafaela 2–2–2 Quilmes (6 last)

Quilmes2-0Atletico Rafaela
Quilmes1-2Atletico Rafaela
Atletico Rafaela1-0Quilmes
Atletico Rafaela1-2Quilmes
Atletico Rafaela2-2Quilmes
Quilmes1-1Atletico Rafaela

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Rafaela 1463 · Quilmes 1477

	Atletico Rafaela	Draw	Quilmes
Our model	33%	34%	33%
Market	34%	32%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 1.98 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Rafaela	Quilmes
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	0.7 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.3	2.8 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.75

X2.88

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:07 +10’	2.75	2.88	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Rafaela 2–2–2 Quilmes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Argentina Nacional B	Quilmes	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Rafaela
30/07/23 Argentina Nacional B	Quilmes	1-2 HT 1-1	Atletico Rafaela
27/03/23 Argentina Nacional B	Atletico Rafaela	1-0 HT 0-0	Quilmes
08/05/22 Argentina Nacional B	Atletico Rafaela	1-2 HT 0-0	Quilmes
24/01/21 Argentina Nacional B	Atletico Rafaela	2-2 HT 0-1	Quilmes
03/03/20 Argentina Nacional B	Quilmes	1-1 HT 1-1	Atletico Rafaela

Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	33	15	14	4	32	15	59
2	CA Atlanta	33	18	4	11	39	30	58
3	Club Atletico Temperley	32	15	11	6	38	26	56
4	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	15	9	8	48	40	54
5	Ferrocarril Midland	33	14	9	10	38	26	51
6	Gimnasia y Tiro	32	13	9	10	32	28	48
7	Deportivo Maipu	32	13	8	11	39	31	47
8	CA Colegiales	33	13	8	12	32	31	47
9	San Martin SJ	32	12	9	11	34	32	45
10	San Martin de Tucuman	33	10	13	10	35	33	43
11	Atletico Rafaela	33	11	9	13	27	34	42
12	Almagro	33	11	8	14	30	39	41
13	Agropecuario	33	10	10	13	27	35	40
14	Quilmes	33	10	9	14	30	28	39
15	Nueva Chicago	32	9	9	14	23	30	36
16	Patronato Parana	32	6	16	10	27	32	34
17	Chacarita Juniors	33	9	6	18	25	35	33
18	CA Guemes	32	5	8	19	23	54	23

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Rafaela	Quilmes
Agropecuario	0-2 L	0-1 L
Tristan Suarez	2-1 W	0-0 D
CA Guemes	0-0 D	2-0 W
Chacarita Juniors	1-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Rafaela

WDDWLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B	0-2	0-4	1	2	L
04/10	CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B	1-1	2-3	6	5	L
27/09	Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
19/09	San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B	2-2	4-2	1	6	W
13/09	Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B	0-1	1-2	7	6	L
06/09	Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
29/08	Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B	0-1	2-1	6	8	W
24/08	CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
15/08	Defensores de Belgrano Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
08/08	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-0	3	2	W

Quilmes

DWLLLWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
03/10	Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
26/09	CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	8	1	W
20/09	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-3	6	11	L
12/09	San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	5	9	W
07/09	Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
31/08	Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
23/08	Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
16/08	CA San Telmo Argentina Nacional B	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
09/08	Almagro Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-1	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Rafaela vs Quilmes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Rafaela win (34%). Probabilities: Atletico Rafaela 34%, draw 33%, Quilmes 34%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Rafaela vs Quilmes?

The model expects 1.98 goals (Atletico Rafaela 0.99 · Quilmes 0.99), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Rafaela vs Quilmes?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.