Football · Argentina Nacional B · 10/10, 22:00

Prediction: Patronato Parana vs CA Guemes

Team pages: Patronato Parana · CA Guemes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.08Total

Patronato Parana1.46

CA Guemes0.62

1X2

57% 28% 15%

Patronato Parana Draw CA Guemes

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Patronato Parana 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLDWLDDDWL

CA Guemes 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LDDDDLLLLL

Head-to-head

Patronato Parana 0–3–3 CA Guemes (6 last)

CA Guemes1-0Patronato Parana
Patronato Parana1-1CA Guemes
CA Guemes1-1Patronato Parana
CA Guemes2-1Patronato Parana
Patronato Parana0-0CA Guemes
CA Guemes1-0Patronato Parana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Patronato Parana 1482 · CA Guemes 1430

	Patronato Parana	Draw	CA Guemes
Our model	56%	29%	15%
Market	57%	28%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.08 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Patronato Parana (rating 1482 vs 1430).
H2H favours CA Guemes: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Patronato Parana	CA Guemes
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	0.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.7	1.4 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.6	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.30

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.9%

Time*	1	X	2
01:31 +16’	1.61	3.30	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Patronato Parana 0–3–3 CA Guemes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Argentina Nacional B	CA Guemes	1-0 HT 0-0	Patronato Parana
22/06/25 Argentina Nacional B	Patronato Parana	1-1 HT 1-1	CA Guemes
15/02/25 Argentina Nacional B	CA Guemes	1-1 HT 0-0	Patronato Parana
03/08/24 Argentina Nacional B	CA Guemes	2-1 HT 0-1	Patronato Parana
17/03/24 Argentina Nacional B	Patronato Parana	0-0 HT 0-0	CA Guemes
30/07/23 Argentina Nacional B	CA Guemes	1-0 HT 1-0	Patronato Parana

Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	32	15	13	4	32	15	58
2	Club Atletico Temperley	32	15	11	6	38	26	56
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	15	9	8	48	40	54
4	CA Atlanta	31	16	4	11	35	28	52
5	Gimnasia y Tiro	31	13	9	9	32	27	48
6	Ferrocarril Midland	31	13	8	10	34	26	47
7	San Martin SJ	31	12	9	10	33	30	45
8	Deportivo Maipu	31	12	8	11	38	31	44
9	CA Colegiales	31	12	7	12	31	31	43
10	Atletico Rafaela	31	11	9	11	25	27	42
11	San Martin de Tucuman	31	9	13	9	34	32	40
12	Quilmes	32	10	9	13	30	27	39
13	Nueva Chicago	31	9	9	13	23	29	36
14	Agropecuario	31	9	9	13	26	35	36
15	Almagro	31	9	8	14	26	37	35
16	Patronato Parana	31	6	16	9	27	31	34
17	Chacarita Juniors	31	8	6	17	23	33	30
18	CA Guemes	31	5	8	18	23	53	23

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Patronato Parana	CA Guemes
Chacarita Juniors	0-1 L	0-0 D
CA Atlanta	2-0 W	0-2 L
CA Colegiales	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Patronato Parana (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Patronato Parana

DLDWLDDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
27/09	San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B	2-0	3-0	0	6	W
22/09	Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
13/09	Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
06/09	Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
30/08	Almagro Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
26/08	CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
22/08	Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B	1-1	3-3	7	6	D
15/08	Colon Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
09/08	CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-2	7	3	D

CA Guemes

LDDDDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
26/09	Quilmes Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	1	1	L
20/09	Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
12/09	CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
06/09	Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B	0-2	1-3	7	1	L
30/08	San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
24/08	Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
19/08	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
15/08	Club Atletico Mitre Argentina Nacional B	1-1	1-1	1	5	D
08/08	Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-3	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Patronato Parana vs CA Guemes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Patronato Parana win (57%). Probabilities: Patronato Parana 57%, draw 28%, CA Guemes 15%.

How many goals are expected in Patronato Parana vs CA Guemes?

The model expects 2.08 goals (Patronato Parana 1.46 · CA Guemes 0.62), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Patronato Parana vs CA Guemes?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.