Football · South Korea K League 1 · 11/10, 07:00
Prediction: Gwangju FC vs Ulsan HD
Team pages: Gwangju FC · Ulsan HD
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.83Total
Gwangju FC1.34
Ulsan HD1.5
1X2
Gwangju FC
Draw
Ulsan HD
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Gwangju FC
0-5-5 (W-D-L)
Ulsan HD
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gwangju FC
2–2–2
Ulsan HD
(6 last)
- Gwangju FC1-1Ulsan HD
- Ulsan HD5-1Gwangju FC
- Gwangju FC2-0Ulsan HD
- Ulsan HD2-0Gwangju FC
- Gwangju FC1-0Ulsan HD
- Gwangju FC1-1Ulsan HD
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ulsan HD (rating 1446 vs 1525).
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gwangju FC | Ulsan HD | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.8 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 0/80/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.5 | 1.8 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.3 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gwangju FC 2–2–2 Ulsan HD
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/26 South Korea K League 1 | Gwangju FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Ulsan HD |
| 19/04/26 South Korea K League 1 | Ulsan HD | 5-1 HT 2-1 | Gwangju FC |
| 22/11/25 South Korea K League 1 | Gwangju FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Ulsan HD |
| 18/10/25 South Korea K League 1 | Ulsan HD | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Gwangju FC |
| 02/07/25 South Korea Cup | Gwangju FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Ulsan HD |
| 28/05/25 South Korea K League 1 | Gwangju FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Ulsan HD |
Standings · South Korea K League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 56 | 25 | 62 |
| 2 | Ulsan HD | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 45 | 40 | 47 |
| 3 | Jeju SK | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 35 | 29 | 46 |
| 4 | Jeonbuk Motors | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 38 | 28 | 44 |
| 5 | Gangwon FC | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 36 | 28 | 43 |
| 6 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 37 | 40 |
| 7 | Pohang Steelers | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 28 | 34 | 40 |
| 8 | Incheon Utd | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 36 | 33 | 39 |
| 9 | FC Anyang | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 38 | 47 | 38 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 30 | 5 | 18 | 7 | 30 | 36 | 33 |
| 11 | Bucheon | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 31 | 40 | 32 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 30 | 1 | 12 | 17 | 21 | 63 | 15 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gwangju FC | Ulsan HD |
|---|---|---|
| Jeonbuk Motors | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| FC Anyang | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Jeju SK | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 2-2 D | 3-1 W |
| FC Seoul | 2-5 L | 1-0 W |
| Gangwon FC | 2-2 D | 2-3 L |
| Incheon Utd | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Pohang Steelers | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 4 D 5 L | 4 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Ulsan HD (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gwangju FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 13/09 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 09/09 | Jeju SK South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 30/08 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
1-3 | 2-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 26/08 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 02/08 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
Ulsan HD
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 08/09 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Jeju SK South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 29/08 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/08 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 16/08 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gwangju FC vs Ulsan HD?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Ulsan HD win (40%). Probabilities: Gwangju FC 33%, draw 27%, Ulsan HD 40%.
How many goals are expected in Gwangju FC vs Ulsan HD?
The model expects 2.83 goals (Gwangju FC 1.34 · Ulsan HD 1.5), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Ulsan HD?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.