Football · Chile Primera Division Women · 06/09, 19:30

Prediction: Union Espanola (W) vs Universidad Catolica (W)

Team pages: Union Espanola (W) · Universidad Catolica (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Union Espanola (W)0.68

Universidad Catolica (W)1.78

1X2

13% 23% 63%

Union Espanola (W) Draw Universidad Catolica (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Espanola (W) 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLDLLLWW

Universidad Catolica (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWLDW

Head-to-head

Union Espanola (W) 2–2–1 Universidad Catolica (W) (5 last)

Universidad Catolica (W)2-0Union Espanola (W)
Union Espanola (W)1-0Universidad Catolica (W)
Universidad Catolica (W)0-1Union Espanola (W)
Universidad Catolica (W)1-1Union Espanola (W)
Union Espanola (W)0-0Universidad Catolica (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Espanola (W) 1465 · Universidad Catolica (W) 1562

	Union Espanola (W)	Draw	Universidad Catolica (W)
Our model	13%	25%	63%
Market	14%	22%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Catolica (W) (rating 1465 vs 1562).
H2H favours Union Espanola (W): 2-2-1.
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Espanola (W)	Universidad Catolica (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	2.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/56/33%	38/38/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.4	3.8 / 7.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

16.50

X4.00

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.88

2 (-1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
20:20 +9’	6.50	4.00	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Espanola (W) 2–2–1 Universidad Catolica (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Chile Primera Division Women	Universidad Catolica (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Union Espanola (W)
07/09/25 Chile Primera Division Women	Union Espanola (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Universidad Catolica (W)
18/05/25 Chile Primera Division Women	Universidad Catolica (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Union Espanola (W)
01/09/24 Chile Primera Division Women	Universidad Catolica (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Union Espanola (W)
18/05/24 Chile Primera Division Women	Union Espanola (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Universidad Catolica (W)

Standings · Chile Primera Division Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo (W)	24	23	1	0	100	4	70
2	Universidad Catolica (W)	23	18	1	4	51	14	55
3	Universidad de Chile (W)	23	16	3	4	61	24	51
4	Coquimbo Unido (W)	23	13	5	5	46	21	44
5	Palestino (W)	22	10	5	7	32	29	35
6	Union Espanola (W)	23	9	5	9	25	25	32
7	Huachipato (W)	21	8	5	8	23	35	29
8	Deportes Iquique (W)	22	8	3	11	33	34	27
9	Magallanes (W)	24	7	3	14	30	58	24
10	Santiago Wanderers (W)	24	5	5	14	18	44	20
11	Universidad de Concepcion (W)	22	4	4	14	15	46	16
12	Deportes Temuco (W)	23	4	2	17	22	60	14
13	Deportes Recoleta (W)	22	2	0	20	20	82	6

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Espanola (W)	Universidad Catolica (W)
Deportes Recoleta (W)	2-0 W	3-0 W
Huachipato (W)	0-1 L	1-3 L
Universidad de Chile (W)	1-2 L	2-0 W
Palestino (W)	0-1 L	5-0 W
Deportes Temuco (W)	1-1 D	2-0 W
Coquimbo Unido (W)	0-4 L	3-2 W
Colo Colo (W)	0-2 L	1-2 L
Santiago Wanderers (W)	0-0 D	2-0 W
Deportes Iquique (W)	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 6 L	6 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Universidad Catolica (W) (8 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Espanola (W)

LDLLDLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Deportes Recoleta (W) Chile Primera Division Women	–	2-0	–	–	W
28/08	Universidad de Concepcion (W) Chile Primera Division Women	3-1	4-1	6	4	W
23/08	Huachipato (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-0	0-1	11	3	L
16/08	Universidad de Chile (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-2	1-2	1	1	L
12/08	Palestino (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
09/08	Deportes Temuco (W) Chile Primera Division Women	1-1	1-1	8	1	D
01/08	Coquimbo Unido (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-3	0-4	4	4	L
25/07	Colo Colo (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-0	0-2	0	2	L
11/07	Santiago Wanderers (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-0	0-0	11	1	D
08/07	Deportes Iquique (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-0	0-1	2	5	L

Universidad Catolica (W)

LWWWWWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Universidad de Chile (W) Chile Primera Division Women	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
23/08	Deportes Iquique (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-0	1-1	10	1	D
15/08	Huachipato (W) Chile Primera Division Women	1-3	1-3	15	5	L
12/08	Deportes Recoleta (W) Chile Primera Division Women	–	3-0	6	4	W
07/08	Magallanes (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-0	3-0	3	2	W
29/07	Deportes Temuco (W) Chile Primera Division Women	1-0	2-0	11	2	W
25/07	Palestino (W) Chile Primera Division Women	2-0	5-0	8	3	W
13/07	Coquimbo Unido (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-1	3-2	14	3	W
08/07	Santiago Wanderers (W) Chile Primera Division Women	–	2-0	–	–	W
04/07	Colo Colo (W) Chile Primera Division Women	1-1	1-2	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Espanola (W) vs Universidad Catolica (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Universidad Catolica (W) win (63%). Probabilities: Union Espanola (W) 13%, draw 23%, Universidad Catolica (W) 63%.

How many goals are expected in Union Espanola (W) vs Universidad Catolica (W)?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Union Espanola (W) 0.68 · Universidad Catolica (W) 1.78), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Espanola (W) vs Universidad Catolica (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.